The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Tacoma Defiance 25.1%
Draw 22.4%
St. Louis City 2 52.5%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
22%
22.5%
55.5%
Our Initial ML Estimation
21%
21.5%
58.1%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Tacoma Defiance has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)
St. Louis City 2 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tacoma Defiance than the current prediction. (-4.1%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for St. Louis City 2 than the current prediction. (+5.6%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that St. Louis City 2 could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Tacoma Defiance - St. Louis City 2 Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
50. Anchor M. (C) 47. Alvarez D. 53. Sandnes G. 58. Winslow J. 84. Gaffney C. 40. O'Neill M. 30. Carli E. 62. Emert M. 36. Tsukanome Y. 90. Gomez S. 79. Gonzalez L.
52. McPartlin L. (G) 66. Lillington Z. 41. Pearson C. (C) 98. De Gannes A. 48. Lynch R. 44. Wagoner J. 88. McDonald P. 33. Pearce T. 26. Forcellini C. 42. Ault P. 43. Paris S.
Substitutes
81. Bronnik M. 80. Brown D. 32. Gnaulati X. 42. Jauregui R. 97. Kitafuji S. 34. Robles D. 41. Shour M. (G)
62. Barclay J. 79. Chavez E. 83. Cornelius L. 54. Gbadehan A. 46. Glover C. 68. Jundt A. 50. Martinez N. (G)
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 1)
3', Forcellini C. (Penalty Awarded),
35', 0 - 1, Lynch R. ⚽, De Gannes A. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
48', Pearson C. 🟨,
57', 1 - 1, Tsukanome Y. ⚽, Gaffney C. (A),
57', Carli E. ↓, Gnaulati X. ↑,
60', Paris S. ↓, Barclay J. ↑,
74', McDonald P. 🟨,
79', Pearson C. ↓, Glover C. ↑,
82', 1 - 2, Barclay J. (Penalty Awarded),
82', Gaffney C. ↓, Jauregui R. ↑,
90+2', Alvarez D. ↓, Bronnik M. ↑,
90+2', Ault P. ↓, Jundt A. ↑,
90+2', Forcellini C. ↓, Gbadehan A. ↑,
Preview
An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 12 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS Next Pro (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tacoma won 2.
Tacoma is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).
St. Louis City 2 is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 5 wins).
In this match, St. Louis City 2 is seen as the favorite.
In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Tacoma won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 7:12. (average 1.2:2).
Including home matches between the teams, Tacoma won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:4. (average 1.3:1.3).
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Anchor M. (C) 
Alvarez D. 
Tsukanome Y. 
Pearson C. (C) 
De Gannes A. 
Paris S. 
Gbadehan A. 
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