Match Info

US Open Cup - 1/16-finals

Date: 6 May 2025, Tuesday

Location: Starfire Sports (Tukwila, WA)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	CBS, Paramount+


	Tacoma Defiance		Portland Timbers

	1	X	2
	6.5	5.75	1.33	Watch
	6.75	5.5	1.28	Watch
	7	5.8	1.31
	6.8	6.61	1.35
	7.31	5.81	1.32	Watch
	6.5	5	1.3
	6.55	5.79	1.34	Watch
	7	5.8	1.31
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.8 ↑ (6.07)	5.76 ↓ (5.98)	1.32 ↓ (1.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.75

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tacoma Defiance
13.6%

Draw
16.1%

Portland Timbers
70.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

15.3%

15.5%

69.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

13.8%

17.2%

76.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tacoma Defiance has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Portland Timbers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tacoma Defiance than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Portland Timbers than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Portland Timbers could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Tacoma Defiance - Portland Timbers Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Thomas A. (G) 85. Kossa-Rienzi K. 38. Yamada K. 39. Hawkins S. 21. Baker-Whiting R. 35. Lopez A. 37. Brunell S. 93. Minoungou G. 45. Kingston P. 90. Gomez S. 95. De Rosario O.	16. Crepeau M. (G) 23. Smith I. 13. Zuparic D. 18. McGraw Z. 5. Bravo C. 80. Ortiz J. 17. Paredes C. 7. Lassiter A. 22. Fernandez O. 15. Miller E. 19. Kelsy K.
Substitutes
74. Carli E. 30. Helleren L. (G) 83. Katsaros E. 48. Khoury J. 34. Robles D. 3. Sousa T. 36. Tsukanome Y.	46. Enriquez V. 88. Guerra G. 51. Jura S. 77. Linhares K. 25. Muse T. (G) 63. Nunez D. 45. Pope B.
Coaches
Diese H.	Neville P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
33', 0 - 1, McGraw Z. ⚽, Lassiter A. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 2)
46', Lopez A. ↓, Tsukanome Y. ↑,
46', Bravo C. ↓, Nunez D. ↑,
48', 1 - 1, De Rosario O. ⚽, Minoungou G. (A),
50', 2 - 1, Tsukanome Y. ⚽, Minoungou G. (A),
60', Ortiz J. ↓, Linhares K. ↑,
63', Brunell S. 🟨,
73', McGraw Z. ↓, Jura S. ↑,
73', Kingston P. 🟨,
79', Fernandez O. ↓, Guerra G. ↑,
80', 2 - 2, Guerra G. ⚽, Smith I. (A),
90+3', 2 - 3, Kelsy K. (Pen),

Preview

Tacoma is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Portland has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Portland may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Portland has had a series of away games.

In this match, Portland is the clear favorite.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tacoma Defiance
MLS Next Pro
02.05.25	Ventura County - Tacoma Defiance	1:2 ✺
26.04.25	Tacoma Defiance - St. Louis City 2	4:1 ✺
23.04.25	Sporting Kansas City II - Tacoma Defiance	1:4 ✺
US Open Cup
15.04.25	Tacoma Defiance - Oakland Roots	2:1 ET ✺
MLS Next Pro
10.04.25	Los Angeles 2 - Tacoma Defiance	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.9 WWWWL
- Portland Timbers
MLS
03.05.25	San Jose Earthquakes - Portland Timbers	4:1 ✺
27.04.25	Los Angeles Galaxy - Portland Timbers	2:4 ✺
19.04.25	Portland Timbers - Los Angeles	3:3 ✺
13.04.25	Sporting Kansas City - Portland Timbers	2:4 ✺
05.04.25	Austin FC - Portland Timbers	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.4 LWTWT

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