Match Info

Esiliiga - Round 30

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Kalevi Keskstaadion (Tallinn)


	Tallinna Kalev U21		Elva

	1	X	2
	3.4	4.25	1.72
	3.35	4.7	1.76
	3.59	4.25	1.71
	3.6	4.33	1.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.49 ↑ (3.39)	4.38 ↑ (4.08)	1.71 ↓ (1.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 7.9%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Tallinna Kalev U21
26.1%

Draw
20.8%

Elva
53.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.7%

22.2%

51%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26%

21.6%

52.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tallinna Kalev U21 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Elva has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tallinna Kalev U21 than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Elva than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

Tallinna Kalev U21 - Elva Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Elva (votes: 3 - 60%). Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lepp S. (G) 2. Kirt A. 26. Kukk C. 23. Ernits R. 16. Korasteljov K. 14. Sal-Al-Saller D. 29. Tomberg M. 19. Esna J. 27. Kubensky S. 9. Ilves R. 8. Laasner K.	77. Rebane S. (G) 11. Kaos M. 2. Leppsalu K. 16. Thomson M. 55. Lani G. 25. Karasjov N. 27. Laaneots D. 10. Reilson J. (C) 36. Ilves E. 7. Paju A. 18. Poldsaar K.
Substitutes
13. Kaljurand J. (G) 20. Kirss H. 10. Lasn O. 15. Mellis V. 6. Oja R. 3. Tammepold H. 17. Valjas S.	20. Epro T. 26. Haabma K. 12. Janes M. (G) 17. Kubber E. 14. Prii R. 30. Prii R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
28', 0 - 1, Paju A. ⚽,
45', Thomson M. 🟨,
45', Kukk C. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
69', 🟨,
82', 0 - 2, Poldsaar K. ⚽,
87', 🟨,
90', 0 - 3, ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kalev U21 won 1.

Kalev U21 is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Elva has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Kalev U21 may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Elva is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Kalev U21 won 3 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 22:25. (average 1.5:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Kalev U21 won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 8:10. (average 1.1:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tallinna Kalev U21
Estonian Esiliiga
22.09.25	Tammeka U21 - Tallinna Kalev U21	4:5 ✺
19.09.25	Tallinna Kalev U21 - Viimsi JK	0:5 ✺
12.09.25	Tallinna Kalev U21 - FC Tallinn	2:2 ✺
31.08.25	Tartu Welco - Tallinna Kalev U21	1:2 ✺
24.08.25	Elva - Tallinna Kalev U21	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 32.6 WLTWW
- FC Elva
Estonian Esiliiga
22.09.25	Viimsi JK - Elva	1:1 ✺
18.09.25	Tammeka U21 - Elva	1:2 ✺
13.09.25	Elva - Nõmme United	1:4 ✺
30.08.25	Nõmme Kalju U21 - Elva	0:1 ✺
24.08.25	Elva - Tallinna Kalev U21	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 TWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Estonian Esiliiga
24.08.25	Elva - Tallinna Kalev U21	0:2
05.07.25	Elva - Tallinna Kalev U21	5:3
06.04.25	Tallinna Kalev U21 - Elva	0:1
27.10.24	Elva - Tallinna Kalev U21	1:1
20.07.24	Tallinna Kalev U21 - Elva	2:2
18.05.24	Tallinna Kalev U21 - Elva	4:0
30.03.24	Elva - Tallinna Kalev U21	2:2

Upcoming Matches