Match Info

Esiliiga - Round 26

Date: 31 August 2025, Sunday

Location: Holm Jalgpallipark (Tartu)


	Tartu Welco		Tallinna Kalev U21

	1	X	2
	1.22	6	8
	1.36	5.15	5.5
	1.37	5.45	5.11
	1.4	5.91	5.37
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.34 ↑ (1.31)	5.63 ↑ (5.5)	6 ↓ (6.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.75

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tartu Welco
68.5%

Draw
16.3%

Tallinna Kalev U21
15.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.1%

16.4%

14.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

71.5%

15.8%

14%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tartu Welco has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Tallinna Kalev U21 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tartu Welco than the current prediction. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tallinna Kalev U21 than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Tartu Welco - Tallinna Kalev U21 Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.75 - Kalev U21 (1.77) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Kalev U21 (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
91. Bachmann T. (G) 4. Sossi M. (C) 34. Saareleht T. 3. Paul J. 11. Magi M. 32. Salu R. 95. Saupold T. 40. Viira S. 20. Mugra M. 88. Manucho 9. Mottus E.	1. Lepp S. (G) 2. Kirt A. 26. Kukk C. 23. Ernits R. 3. Sheviakov D. 14. Sal-Al-Saller D. 7. Surogin A. 27. Tomberg M. 16. Kollo A. 9. Ilves R. 8. Laasner K. (C)
Substitutes
27. Ernits H. 1. Karjagin A. (G) 18. Penu M. 70. Petmanson J. 19. Raudmae J. 13. Sokolov I. 33. Teniste T. 21. Vool A.	19. Esna J. 17. Jaritsa E. 13. Kaljurand J. (G) 10. Lasn O. 11. Leis L. 15. Mellis V. 20. Oja R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
24', 🟨,
31', 🟨,
45', 0 - 1, Ilves R. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
56', 0 - 2, Laasner K. ⚽,
75', Saupold T. ↓, Petmanson J. ↑,
80', Surogin A. ↓, Leis L. ↑,
84', Tomberg M. ↓, Jaritsa E. ↑,
90+2', Ilves R. ↓, Esna J. ↑,
90+2', 1 - 2, Petmanson J. ⚽,
90+4', Lepp S. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tartu Welco won 3.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Tartu Welco may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Tartu Welco is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Tartu Welco won 9 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 32:23. (average 2:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Tartu Welco won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 18:10. (average 2.3:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tartu JK Welco
Estonian Esiliiga
23.08.25	FC Tallinn - Tartu Welco	0:2 ✺
18.08.25	Viimsi JK - Tartu Welco	3:2 ✺
10.08.25	Tartu Welco - Tammeka U21	3:0 ✺
04.08.25	Elva - Tartu Welco	1:2 ✺
28.07.25	Tartu Welco - Nõmme United	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WLWWL
- Tallinna Kalev U21
Estonian Esiliiga
24.08.25	Elva - Tallinna Kalev U21	0:2 ✺
16.08.25	Tallinna Kalev U21 - Nõmme Kalju U21	2:2 ✺
10.08.25	Flora U21 - Tallinna Kalev U21	1:1 ✺
01.08.25	Tallinna Kalev U21 - Tammeka U21	5:0 ✺
28.07.25	Viimsi JK - Tallinna Kalev U21	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.8 WTTWL

Latest Head to Head

Estonian Esiliiga
02.06.25	Tallinna Kalev U21 - Tartu Welco	1:2
06.03.25	Tartu Welco - Tallinna Kalev U21	1:1
18.10.24	Tallinna Kalev U21 - Tartu Welco	4:2
14.09.24	Tartu Welco - Tallinna Kalev U21	3:0
29.06.24	Tartu Welco - Tallinna Kalev U21	5:2
28.04.24	Tallinna Kalev U21 - Tartu Welco	0:3
10.11.19	Tallinna Kalev U21 - Tartu Welco	2:3

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