Match Info

Esiliiga B - Round 11

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday


	Tallinna Kalev U21		Jõhvi Phoenix

	1	X	2
	3.45	4.45	1.65
	3.45	4.95	1.61
	3.4	4.33	1.67
	3.59	4.8	1.63
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.47 ↑ (2.98)	4.63 ↑ (4.13)	1.64 ↓ (1.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.50

The best margin for this event is 10%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tallinna Kalev U21
25.9%

Draw
19.4%

Jõhvi Phoenix
54.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.6%

22.1%

47.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.7%

21.5%

48.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tallinna Kalev U21 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

Jõhvi Phoenix has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Jõhvi Phoenix's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tallinna Kalev U21 than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jõhvi Phoenix than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Jõhvi Phoenix, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Tallinna Kalev U21 - Jõhvi Phoenix Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:3

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
16', 1 - 0, ⚽,
35', 1 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
75', 1 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 9 in the zone Relegation and 4).

Kalev U21 is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Jõhvi Phoenix's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Jõhvi Phoenix may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Jõhvi Phoenix has had a series of home games.

Jõhvi Phoenix will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Kalev U21 won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Johvi Phoenix	30	17	3	10	71:68	3	54
9	Tallinna Kalev U21	31	8	5	18	63:78	-15	29

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tallinna Kalev U21
Estonian Esiliiga B
10.05.26	Viljandi Tulevik - Tallinna Kalev U21	4:3 ✺
02.05.26	Tallinna Kalev U21 - Tabasalu	2:3 ✺
28.04.26	Tallinna Kalev U21 - Pärnu Vaprus U21	2:3 ✺
24.04.26	Tartu Kalev - Tallinna Kalev U21	1:3 ✺
18.04.26	Tallinna Kalev U21 - Levadia U19	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.2 LLLWL
- Jõhvi FC Phoenix
Estonian Esiliiga B
09.05.26	Jõhvi Phoenix - Tabasalu	1:2 ✺
01.05.26	Jõhvi Phoenix - Tartu Kalev	4:3 ✺
27.04.26	Jõhvi Phoenix - Tallinna JK Legion	2:1 ✺
24.04.26	Jõhvi Phoenix - Levadia U19	4:3 ✺
18.04.26	Tabasalu - Jõhvi Phoenix	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Estonian Esiliiga B
14.03.26	Jõhvi Phoenix - Tallinna Kalev U21	2:1

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