Match Info

Esiliiga - Round 23

Date: 15 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Holm Jalgpallipark (Tartu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Tartu Welco		Flora U21

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.50	4.40	4.40
	1.42	4.7	4.8
	1.63	4.55	3.62
	1.46	5.19	4.64
	1.6	4.45	3.55
	1.61	4.71	4.29
	1.45	4.7	4.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.52 ↑ (1.36)	4.67 ↓ (5.3)	4.29 ↓ (5.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.00

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tartu Welco
59.5%

Draw
19.4%

Flora U21
21.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.7%

17.1%

16.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.4%

16.2%

15.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tartu Welco has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Tartu Welco's form might have worsened.

Flora U21 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tartu Welco than the current prediction. (+10.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Tartu Welco, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Flora U21 than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Flora U21, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Tartu Welco - Flora U21 Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
13', 1 - 0, Kablik H. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
48', 1 - 1, Paltser E. ⚽,
88', 2 - 1, Kablik H. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tartu Welco won 2.

Recent form of Tartu Welco has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Flora U21 has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Tartu Welco is considered a favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Tartu Welco won 3 matches, drew 9 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 30:54. (average 1.5:2.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Tartu Welco won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 14:27. (average 1.4:2.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Tartu Welco	31	20	5	6	81:39	42	65
3	Flora U21	31	15	6	10	72:53	19	51

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tartu JK Welco
Estonian Esiliiga
08.08.26	Elva - Tartu Welco	2:1 ✺
01.08.26	Nõmme United U21 - Tartu Welco	2:1 ✺
18.07.26	Tartu Welco - FC Tallinn	0:2 ✺
13.07.26	Maardu Linnameeskond - Tartu Welco	1:8 ✺
02.07.26	Tartu Welco - Viimsi JK	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 LLLWT
- Flora U21
Estonian Esiliiga
10.08.26	Flora U21 - Nõmme Kalju U21	3:0 ✺
01.08.26	FC Tallinn - Flora U21	1:0 ✺
25.07.26	Nõmme Kalju U21 - Flora U21	0:5 ✺
Estonian Cup
22.07.26	Narva Trans - Flora U21	1:0 penalties ✺
Estonian Esiliiga
18.07.26	Flora U21 - Maardu Linnameeskond	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Estonian Esiliiga
17.05.26	Tartu Welco - Flora U21	3:3
14.03.26	Flora U21 - Tartu Welco	1:6
09.11.25	Flora U21 - Tartu Welco	1:1
14.09.25	Tartu Welco - Flora U21	0:0
25.05.25	Tartu Welco - Flora U21	4:2
13.04.25	Flora U21 - Tartu Welco	3:3
10.11.24	Flora U21 - Tartu Welco	0:1

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