Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Clausura - Round 7

Date: 20 February 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio Gregorio "Tepa" Gómez (Tepatitlán)


	Tepatitlán de Morelos		Irapuato

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.25	3.1	3.05	Watch
	2.31	3.25	3.52
	2.23	3.21	3.29	Watch
	2.15	3	3.1
	2.17	2.94	3.35	Watch
	2.22	2.83	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.22 ↑ (2.14)	3.06 ↓ (3.28)	3.26 ↑ (3.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tepatitlán de Morelos
41.5%

Draw
30.2%

Irapuato
28.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.8%

27.9%

29.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.9%

26.6%

27.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tepatitlán de Morelos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Irapuato has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tepatitlán de Morelos than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Irapuato than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

Tepatitlán de Morelos - Irapuato Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gutierrez G. (C) 22. Aguilar D. 24. Cardona U. 26. Dominguez I. 10. Guzman W. 19. Islas O. 29. Mendoza B. 2. Pinela M. 6. Ruiz A. 20. Samano L. 23. Venegas J.	20. Hernandez H. (C) 32. Castellanos R. 5. Elbis 28. Gamboa J. 33. Gonzalez R. 13. Martinez R. 10. Rangel J. 34. Ruiz J. 36. Salazar J. 25. Sanchez B. 9. Vasquez Velasquez L. S.
Substitutes
18. Gomez J. 12. Gonzalez C. (G) 13. Gonzalez Calderon L. A. 9. Lazarte L. 159. Macias L. 21. Moreno Villegas J. A. 152. Ramos D. 8. Samano Salgado F. 30. Talavera J.	8. Cruz C. 2. Doldan J. 29. Gutierrez L. 1. Magana G. (G) 27. Martinez G. 37. Martinez S. 11. Partida E. 31. Pena R. 24. Rodriguez A. 26. Santillan E.
Coaches
Pereyra G.	Alcantar D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
8', Mendoza B. 🟨,
15', 1 - 0, Guzman W. ⚽,
20', Martinez R. 🟨,
40', Dominguez I. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
54', Sanchez B. 🟨,
54', Gonzalez R. 🟨,
63', Salazar J. ↓, Pena R. ↑,
64', Ruiz A. 🟨,
67', 2 - 0, Mendoza B. ⚽,
68', Mendoza B. ↓, Gomez J. ↑,
74', Gonzalez R. ↓, Gutierrez L. ↑,
74', Rangel J. ↓, Doldan J. ↑,
74', Sanchez B. ↓, Partida E. ↑,
77', 2 - 1, Gamboa J. ⚽, Partida E. (A),
81', Martinez R. ↓, Santillan E. ↑,
82', Aguilar D. 🟨,
85', Islas O. ↓, Gonzalez Calderon L. A. ↑,
90+3', Gutierrez L. 🟨,
90+3', Venegas J. 🟨,
90+4', Samano L. ↓, Talavera J. ↑,
90+7', Gonzalez Calderon L. A. 🟨,
90+10', Partida E. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Tepatitlán is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Irapuato has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Tepatitlán could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Tepatitlán won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
16	Tepatitlan de Morelos	10	2	0	8	8:29	-21	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tepatitlán de Morelos
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
15.02.26	Leones Negros UdeG - Tepatitlán de Morelos	0:0 ✺
06.02.26	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Correcaminos UAT	2:1 ✺
30.01.26	Dorados - Tepatitlán de Morelos	0:0 ✺
23.01.26	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Tapatío	2:0 ✺
18.01.26	Jaiba Brava - Tepatitlán de Morelos	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 TWTWW
- Irapuato
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
13.02.26	Irapuato - Dorados	5:0 ✺
07.02.26	Jaiba Brava - Irapuato	0:1 ✺
24.01.26	Tlaxcala - Irapuato	2:1 ✺
17.01.26	Irapuato - Leones Negros UdeG	4:1 ✺
09.01.26	Venados - Irapuato	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
14.09.25	Irapuato - Tepatitlán de Morelos	0:0

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