Match Info

Division 1 - Round 5

Date: 22 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza (Nieciecza)

Referee: Lasyk P. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Poland	TVP 3, TVP Sport app
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Termalica Nieciecza		Polonia Warsaw

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.4	2.55
	2.50	3.40	2.45
	2.55	3.4	2.45
	2.57	3.6	2.68
	2.52	3.5	2.62	Watch
	2.5	3.4	2.6
	2.42	3.32	2.53
	2.41	3.3	2.49
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.48 ↑ (2.42)	3.42 ↑ (3.3)	2.55 ↓ (2.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Termalica Nieciecza
37.1%

Draw
26.9%

Polonia Warsaw
36.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.4%

27.5%

35.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.8%

27.2%

34.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Termalica Nieciecza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Polonia Warsaw has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Termalica Nieciecza than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Polonia Warsaw than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Termalica Nieciecza - Polonia Warsaw Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Chovan A. (G) 4. Zarowny A. 5. Masoero L. 77. Putivtsev A. 21. Hilbrycht D. 23. Guerrero S. 17. Biniek D. 20. Jaroszewski M. 26. Jakubik W. 25. Zapolnik K. (C) 27. Boboc R.	71. Jelen M. (G) 22. Olszewski P. 16. Budnicki J. 29. Marcjanik M. 20. Olafsson D. 2. Kuusk M. 6. Gnaase D. (C) 24. Terpilowski E. 23. Skrabb S. 99. Durmus I. 26. Tabara K.
Substitutes
15. Dabrowski S. 10. Drag M. 9. Jimenez J. 16. Kozik M. 13. Kubica K. 66. Olejnik P. 11. Slawinski O. 76. Topor E. (G)	17. Dadok R. 15. Golos A. 21. Kapusta A. 9. Kostorz K. 27. Kowalczyk S. 10. Mroz M. 72. Sandach A. (G) 19. Vasin N. 7. Vega D.
Coaches
Brosz M.	Stokowiec P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
7', 0 - 1, Terpilowski E. ⚽, Tabara K. (A),
41', Terpilowski E. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
49', 0 - 2, Terpilowski E. ⚽,
57', Biniek D. ↓, Kubica K. ↑,
57', Jaroszewski M. ↓, Dabrowski S. ↑,
57', Jakubik W. ↓, Jimenez J. ↑,
60', 0 - 3, Durmus I. ⚽, Kuusk M. (A),
67', Durmus I. ↓, Vega D. ↑,
67', Tabara K. ↓, Kostorz K. ↑,
76', Skrabb S. ↓, Kowalczyk S. ↑,
78', Guerrero S. 🟨,
79', Kubica K. 🟨,
82', Terpilowski E. ↓, Dadok R. ↑,
82', Kuusk M. ↓, Mroz M. ↑,
83', Putivtsev A. ↓, Kozik M. ↑,
83', Boboc R. ↓, Slawinski O. ↑,
88', 1 - 3, Kozik M. ⚽,

Preview

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Termalica may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Termalica won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:6. (average 1:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Termalica won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:5. (average 1:2.5).

Outrights of Polish Division 1 for now

Polonia Warszawa: 6.76%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Polonia Warszawa	9	4	2	3	15:12	3	14

Last Results with these Odds

Polonia Warsaw - the odds 2.59 are the expected chance of winning is 35.06%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Termalica Nieciecza
Polish Division 1
16.08.26	ŁKS Łódź - Termalica Nieciecza	2:1 ✺
09.08.26	Termalica Nieciecza - Warta Poznań	1:2 ✺
01.08.26	Pogoń Siedlce - Termalica Nieciecza	1:2 ✺
26.07.26	Termalica Nieciecza - Ruch Chorzów	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
18.07.26	Termalica Nieciecza - Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biała	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LLWWT
- Polonia Warsaw
Polish Division 1
15.08.26	Pogoń Siedlce - Polonia Warsaw	1:0 ✺
07.08.26	Polonia Warsaw - Ruch Chorzów	1:1 ✺
01.08.26	Polonia Warsaw - Unia Skierniewice	3:1 ✺
26.07.26	Puszcza Niepołomice - Polonia Warsaw	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
15.07.26	Polonia Warsaw - Zlín	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 1
14.04.25	Termalica Nieciecza - Polonia Warsaw	0:3
29.09.24	Polonia Warsaw - Termalica Nieciecza	0:1
05.05.24	Termalica Nieciecza - Polonia Warsaw	2:2
04.11.23	Polonia Warsaw - Termalica Nieciecza	1:1

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