Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Libertadores - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 21 August 2024, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Hernando Siles (La Paz)

Referee: Garay C. (Chi)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	StarTimes App
Argentina	Fox Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1, Moja TV
Brazil	Claro TV+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, FuboTV
Chile	ESPN Premium
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 3
Mexico	ESPN
Montenegro	Arena Premium 1
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Nigeria	Sporty TV
North-central-america	ESPNPlay Caribbean
North-macedonia	Arena Premium 1
Portugal	Sport TV1
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
South-america	ESPN South
Spain	beIN Sports
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, FuboTV
World	Disney+, Fanatiz, LaLiga+ app


	The Strongest		Peñarol de Montevideo

	1	X	2
	1.48	4.5	6.5	Watch
	1.47	4.6	6.25
	1.46	4.7	5.95
	1.48	4.63	6.66
	1.49	4.61	6.19	Watch
	1.4	4.6	6	Watch
	1.48	4.76	6.43	Watch
	1.46	4.7	5.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.47 ↑ (1.35)	4.64 ↓ (5.5)	6.24 ↓ (7.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

The Strongest
64.5%

Draw
20.4%

Peñarol de Montevideo
15.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

70.4%

17.3%

12.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

69.3%

17%

12.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The Strongest has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that The Strongest's form might have worsened.

Peñarol de Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for The Strongest than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Peñarol de Montevideo than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	8.3%	16.7%

The Strongest - Peñarol de Montevideo Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. The Strongest will win (votes: 6 - 75%). Peñarol will win (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for The Strongest: 45% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Viscarra G. (G) 15. Caire M. 3. Aimar D. 5. Jusino A. (C) 23. Chura J. 14. Wayar D. 8. Ursino L. 10. Ortega M. 7. Amoroso J. 11. Triverio E. 28. Ayarza A.	29. Aguerre W. (G) 20. Milans P. 23. Mendez J. 2. Leo Coelho 4. Rodriguez G. 15. Olivera M. (C) 7. Cabrera J. 14. Garcia D. 8. Fernandez L. 13. Darias E. 11. Silvera M.
Substitutes
22. Bruno Miranda 12. Careaga J. (G) 4. Enoumba M. 9. Guerrero S. 1. Gutierrez J. (G) 35. Lino D. 21. Quaglio F. 19. Roca C. 27. Saavedra 25. Somoya M. 26. Sotomayor G.	90. Avenatti F. 28. Baez J. 9. Batista F. 12. De Amores G. (G) 16. Fernandez A. 3. Gianoli M. 27. Lucas Hernandez 18. Mayada C. 36. Olase T. 10. Ramirez G. 26. Sequeira L. 19. Sosa D.
Coaches
Rescalvo I.	Aguirre D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
17', Wayar D. 🟨,
44', 1 - 0, Triverio E. (Pen),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Wayar D. ↓, Guerrero S. ↑,
53', Aguerre W. 🟨,
57', Ayarza A. 🟨,
60', Caire M. ↓, Enoumba M. ↑,
60', Amoroso J. ↓, Bruno Miranda ↑,
61', Silvera M. ↓, Batista F. ↑,
61', Darias E. ↓, Lucas Hernandez ↑,
63', Aimar D. 🟨,
64', Fernandez L. 🟨,
75', Ayarza A. ↓, Sotomayor G. ↑,
77', Cabrera J. ↓, Baez J. ↑,
77', Fernandez L. ↓, Ramirez G. ↑,
80', Chura J. ↓, Roca C. ↑,
85', Milans P. ↓, Mayada C. ↑,
90', Baez J. 🟨,

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 0-4.

The Strongest is Qualified for Copa Libertadores (Play Offs 1/8~finals)

Recent matches The Strongest is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Peñarol is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Peñarol could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently The Strongest have a series of guest games.

Recently Peñarol have a series of home games.

In this match The Strongest is the unquestionable favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches The Strongest won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1-6.

Including matches at home between the teams The Strongest won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- The Strongest
Bolivian Division Profesional
18.08.24	Real Tomayapo - The Strongest	2:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
14.08.24	Peñarol de Montevideo - The Strongest	4:0 ✺
Bolivian Division Profesional
08.08.24	Real Santa Cruz - The Strongest	1:2 ✺
04.08.24	The Strongest - Independiente Petroleros	5:0 ✺
01.08.24	Always Ready - The Strongest	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LLWWT
- Peñarol de Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
17.08.24	Peñarol de Montevideo - Cerro Largo	0:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
14.08.24	Peñarol de Montevideo - The Strongest	4:0 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
04.08.24	Nacional Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo	2:1 penalties ✺
27.07.24	Peñarol de Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	1:0 ✺
21.07.24	Peñarol de Montevideo - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 TWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
14.08.24	Peñarol de Montevideo - The Strongest	4:0
17.05.18	Peñarol de Montevideo - The Strongest	2:0
15.03.18	The Strongest - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:0

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