Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Apertura - Round 14

Date: 4 May 2026, Monday

Location: Campeón del Siglo (Montevideo)

Referee: De Armas M. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Antel TV, DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Peñarol de Montevideo		Defensor Sporting

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.25	4.75	Watch
	1.78	3.4	4.2
	1.75	3.3	4.55
	1.8	3.43	5.13
	1.78	3.39	4.83	Watch
	1.8	3.25	4.5
	1.79	3.39	4.62	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.77 ↑ (1.57)	3.34 ↓ (3.4)	4.65 ↓ (6.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Peñarol de Montevideo
52.3%

Draw
27.7%

Defensor Sporting
19.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.1%

26.8%

15.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.3%

26.4%

15.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Peñarol de Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Peñarol de Montevideo's form might have worsened.

Defensor Sporting has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Peñarol de Montevideo than the current prediction. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Defensor Sporting than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

Peñarol de Montevideo - Defensor Sporting Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Defensor Sporting (4.63) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Defensor Sporting (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
29. Aguerre W. (G) 40. Barboza B. 22. Alvez F. 3. Lemos M. 2. Escobar F. 8. Fernandez N. 21. Jesus Trindade 32. Umpierrez L. 80. Gonzalez F. 93. Laxalt D. 19. Arezo M.	12. Dawson K. (G) 11. Agazzi L. 20. Caballero M. 14. Sorondo F. 15. Frugone A. 5. Barrios G. 24. de los Santos L. 77. Castro F. 6. Amaro M. 7. Lozano B. 9. Montenegro B.
Substitutes
28. Alegre I. 18. Barbas G. 9. Batista F. 1. Britos S. (G) 25. Gonzalez M. 11. Hernandez A. 27. Lucas Hernandez 30. Muhlethaler S. 14. Rodriguez K. 23. Togni G.	30. Cuello E. 97. Goicochea Del Carpio J. P. 27. Juan Jorge 1. Machado L. (G) 28. Navarro L. 4. Rodriguez G. 17. Rodriguez V. 21. Scotti N. 22. Torterolo A. 8. Wunsch N.
Coaches
Aguirre D.	Cuello R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
1', Barboza B. 🟨,
16', Laxalt D. 🟨,
19', 1 - 0, Umpierrez L. ⚽,
43', Frugone A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Laxalt D. ↓, Barbas G. ↑,
54', Gonzalez F. ↓, Muhlethaler S. ↑,
54', Barboza B. ↓, Gonzalez M. ↑,
60', Arezo M. 🟨,
60', Sorondo F. 🟨,
62', Lozano B. ↓, Torterolo A. ↑,
62', Barrios G. ↓, Wunsch N. ↑,
68', 1 - 1, Montenegro B. ⚽,
71', Fernandez N. ↓, Hernandez A. ↑,
77', Gonzalez M. 🟨,
78', Castro F. ↓, Rodriguez V. ↑,
83', Hernandez A. 🟨,
83', Escobar F. ↓, Togni G. ↑,
90+5', Aguerre W. 🟨,
90+5', Aguerre W. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Peñarol won 5.

Peñarol has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Defensor Sporting has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Defensor Sporting may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Peñarol is the team to beat.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Peñarol won 14 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 34:18. (average 1.7:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Peñarol won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 14:6. (average 1.6:0.7).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Penarol	9	6	2	1	15:6	9	19

Last Results with these Odds

Peñarol de Montevideo - the odds 1.57 are the expected chance of winning is 58.15%, but this team recently wins 73% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Peñarol de Montevideo
Copa Libertadores
30.04.26	Corinthians - Peñarol de Montevideo	2:0 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
26.04.26	Montevideo Wanderers - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:0 ✺
20.04.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Juventud de Las Piedras	2:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
16.04.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Platense	1:2 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
13.04.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Liverpool Montevideo	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLTLL
- Defensor Sporting
Uruguayan Primera Division
27.04.26	Defensor Sporting - Progreso	1:0 ✺
18.04.26	Racing Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	1:1 ✺
11.04.26	Defensor Sporting - Boston River	2:0 ✺
05.04.26	Cerro - Defensor Sporting	1:0 ✺
31.03.26	Defensor Sporting - Albion Montevideo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WTWLT

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
02.11.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	2:1
Uruguay Copa
15.10.25	Defensor Sporting - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:2
Uruguayan Primera Division
07.06.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	3:0
02.05.25	Defensor Sporting - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:1
17.11.24	Peñarol de Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	2:0
27.07.24	Peñarol de Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	1:0
18.05.24	Defensor Sporting - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:2

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