Match Info

Ligue 3 - Round 8

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadium Plaine (Thionville)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Italy	Ligue 1+
United-kingdom	Ligue 1+


	Thionville Lusitanos		La Roche VF

	1	X	2
	2.50	3.10	2.45
	2.62	3.15	2.45
	2.71	3.34	2.64
	2.65	3.3	2.43
	2.6	3.25	2.55
	2.56	3.1	2.47
	2.6	3.2	2.48
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.61 ↓ (2.72)	3.21 ↑ (3.19)	2.5 ↑ (2.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Thionville Lusitanos
35%

Draw
28.5%

La Roche VF
36.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.6%

28.6%

37.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.4%

28.4%

38%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Thionville Lusitanos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

La Roche VF has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Thionville Lusitanos than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for La Roche VF than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Thionville Lusitanos - La Roche VF Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Parisot A. (G) 6. Aljic M. 5. Atangana J. 23. Bouzar S. 17. Luvualu D. (C) 22. Moustaid J. 26. Montet E. 20. Diarra B. 10. Labissiere B. 7. Tubio K. 14. Kalambayi Mukuta S.	1. Ahamada I. (G) 22. Morel E. 18. Rabuel M. 5. Allemand T. (C) 29. Violleau G. 28. Renaudineau T. 26. Beaulieu J. 8. Bensoula K. 10. Ndiaye M. 17. Vrignon M. 9. Samb M.
Substitutes
9. Bouhmidi K. 12. Gobitaka F. 21. Gouletquer A. 30. Hoel L. (G) 25. Lauratet J. 11. Laurens G. 29. Stebe J.	20. Araujo A. 4. Behlow J. 25. Evora Moniz R. 15. Jacob M. 27. Lamy H. 16. Raux J. (G) 19. Villette M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
10', Kalambayi Mukuta S. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
47', Vrignon M. 🟨,
48', Diarra B. 🟨,
59', Renaudineau T. 🟨,
60', 1 - 0, Tubio K. ⚽,
62', Labissiere B. ↓, Laurens G. ↑,
62', Kalambayi Mukuta S. ↓, Gouletquer A. ↑,
63', Tubio K. ↓, Bouhmidi K. ↑,
63', Renaudineau T. ↓, Jacob M. ↑,
75', Aljic M. 🟨,
80', Beaulieu J. ↓, Villette M. ↑,
80', Bensoula K. ↓, Araujo A. ↑,
86', Diarra B. 🟨,
89', 1 - 1, Ndiaye M. (Penalty Awarded),
90', Vrignon M. ↓, Lamy H. ↑,
90+2', 1 - 2, Araujo A. ⚽,
90+5', Moustaid J. ↓, Gobitaka F. ↑,
90+10', 🟨,

Preview

One of the standout fixtures of the round, featuring two top-tier sides (ranked 5th in the Promotion ~ Ligue 2 (Promotion: ) and 3rd in the Promotion ~ Ligue 2 (Promotion: )).

Thionville Lusitanos has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 1 win).

La Roche VF shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

No recent head-to-head matches have been recorded between these two competitors.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	La Roche	9	6	3	0	15:8	7	21
9	Thionville	9	3	3	3	14:14	0	12

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Thionville Lusitanos
French Ligue 3
19.09.26	Fleury 91 - Thionville Lusitanos	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Thionville Lusitanos - Rouen FC	0:4 ✺
05.09.26	Concarneau - Thionville Lusitanos	2:2 ✺
29.08.26	Thionville Lusitanos - Paris 13 Atletico	1:1 ✺
20.08.26	Bourg-Péronnas - Thionville Lusitanos	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 TLTTW
- La Roche Vendée Football
French Ligue 3
19.09.26	La Roche VF - Valenciennes	3:2 ✺
12.09.26	Villefranche - La Roche VF	0:0 ✺
05.09.26	La Roche VF - Quevilly	1:1 ✺
29.08.26	Orleans - La Roche VF	0:1 ✺
20.08.26	La Roche VF - Cannes	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 WTTWT

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