Match Info

Ligue 3 - Round 10

Date: 15 October 2026, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stade Michel d'Ornano (Caen) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
France	20:45	DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Italy	20:45	Ligue 1+
United Kingdom	19:45	Ligue 1+


	Caen		La Roche VF

	1	X	2
	2.22	3.4	2.75
	2.35	3.6	3.11
	2.31	3.49	2.68
	2.3	3.25	3.05
	2.29	3.63	2.81
	2.24	3.35	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.29 ↓ (2.42)	3.45 ↑ (3.3)	2.87 ↑ (2.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Caen
40.7%

Draw
26.9%

La Roche VF
32.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

37.8%

27.7%

34.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.2%

27.2%

35%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Caen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

La Roche VF has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Caen than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for La Roche VF than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

Caen - La Roche VF Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Clementia Y. (G) 12. Appiah D. (C) 4. Mbaka S. 23. Carole L. 34. Diomande L. 6. Kimboma J. 25. Bagbema Z. 28. Saivet H. 9. El Khoumisti F. 10. Botella I. 11. Gnanduillet A.	1. Ahamada I. (G) 27. Lamy H. 18. Rabuel M. 5. Allemand T. (C) 29. Violleau G. 2. Mahop M. 17. Vrignon M. 26. Beaulieu J. 22. Morel E. 20. Araujo A. 9. Samb M.
Substitutes
32. Aissaoui I. 18. Bomo F. 35. Daffot M. 22. Hafid M. 19. Lamouliatte H. 20. Portut K. 40. Tutu R. (G)	11. Bangoura D. 4. Behlow J. 8. Bensoula K. 25. Evora Moniz R. 21. Gassama E. 16. Raux J. (G) 28. Renaudineau T. 19. Villette M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
20', Bagbema Z. 🟨,
21', Samb M. 🟨,
43', 0 - 1, Samb M. ⚽, Mahop M. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
51', Carole L. 🟨,
56', Saivet H. ↓, Bomo F. ↑,
56', Botella I. ↓, Portut K. ↑,
57', Vrignon M. ↓, Bensoula K. ↑,
64', Kimboma J. ↓, Hafid M. ↑,
64', Gnanduillet A. ↓, Daffot M. ↑,
65', Araujo A. ↓, Bangoura D. ↑,
77', Bagbema Z. ↓, Aissaoui I. ↑,
82', Beaulieu J. ↓, Gassama E. ↑,
82', Lamy H. ↓, Renaudineau T. ↑,
83', 1 - 1, Daffot M. ⚽, Carole L. (A),
88', 2 - 1, Portut K. ⚽,

Preview

An intriguing matchup between a mid-ranked team and a top contender (ranked 7th and 1st in the Promotion - Ligue 2).

In recent outings, Caen has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

La Roche VF is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Caen holding a narrow advantage.

No recent head-to-head matches have been recorded between these two competitors.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	La Roche	10	6	3	1	16:10	6	21
4	Caen	10	6	0	4	19:13	6	18

Outrights of French Ligue 3 for now

Caen: 24.77%

Last Results with these Odds

Caen - the odds 2.42 are the expected chance of winning is 37.83%, but this team recently wins 31% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SM Caen
French Ligue 3
03.10.26	Fleury 91 - Caen	3:2 ✺
24.09.26	Caen - Rouen FC	3:2 ✺
19.09.26	Concarneau - Caen	2:0 ✺
12.09.26	Caen - Paris 13 Atletico	2:0 ✺
05.09.26	Bourg-Péronnas - Caen	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 LWLWW
- La Roche Vendée Football
French Ligue 3
03.10.26	La Roche VF - Aubagne	3:1 ✺
26.09.26	Thionville Lusitanos - La Roche VF	1:2 ✺
19.09.26	La Roche VF - Valenciennes	3:2 ✺
12.09.26	Villefranche - La Roche VF	0:0 ✺
05.09.26	La Roche VF - Quevilly	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WWWTT

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