Match Info

Super League - Round 4

Date: 16 September 2026, Wednesday

Location: Stockhorn Arena (Thun)


	Thun		Servette

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.6	2.85	Watch
	2.25	3.60	2.85
	2.22	3.5	2.75
	2.36	3.8	2.91
	2.29	3.71	2.88	Watch
	2.3	3.7	2.85
	2.3	3.58	2.81	Watch
	2.27	3.65	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.28 ↓ (2.78)	3.64 ↓ (3.69)	2.84 ↑ (2.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Thun
41.2%

Draw
25.8%

Servette
33.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.8%

25.5%

40.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.8%

24.8%

41.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Thun has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Thun's performance.

Servette has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Servette might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Thun than the current prediction. (-8.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Thun that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Servette than the current prediction. (+8.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Servette could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	66.7%	33.3%

Thun - Servette Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Servette will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Steffen N. (G) 47. Fehr F. 5. Burgy N. 19. Bamert J. (C) 18. Strannegard T. 70. Reichmuth N. 16. Roth J. 13. Zoukit N. 8. Saiz F. 96. Labeau B. 26. Christoffersson N.	1. Gertmonas E. (G) 17. Mendes H. 34. Allix T. 15. Burch M. 18. Mazikou B. (C) 28. Douline D. 22. Lambourde M. 9. Stevanovic M. 20. Simo J. 14. Njoh L. 7. Mutandwa K.
Substitutes
37. Dahler L. 9. Dursun F. 14. Kait M. 15. Kristal P. 80. Lengen S. 30. Maier N. 2. Mambwa O. 54. Passavant L. 25. Spycher T. (G)	37. Djoho S. 27. Fofana D. D. 39. Haxhiu E. 42. Izquierdo I. 21. Karlsson J. 36. Lopes T. 23. Maceiras Q. 41. Nunez T. 44. Rieder L. (G)
Coaches
Privitelli G. L.	Gourvennec J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
4', 0 - 1, Mutandwa K. ⚽,
29', 0 - 2, Lambourde M. ⚽, Njoh L. (A),
31', Mazikou B. 🟨,
36', Saiz F. 🟨,
38', 1 - 2, Saiz F. ⚽, Reichmuth N. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Zoukit N. ↓, Kait M. ↑,
47', Bamert J. 🟨,
54', 2 - 2, Saiz F. ⚽,
64', Christoffersson N. ↓, Dursun F. ↑,
64', Strannegard T. ↓, Mambwa O. ↑,
65', 2 - 3, Allix T. ⚽,
66', Mutandwa K. ↓, Fofana D. D. ↑,
66', Lambourde M. ↓, Karlsson J. ↑,
69', Douline D. 🟨,
72', Saiz F. ↓, Maier N. ↑,
74', Karlsson J. 🟨,
77', Burgy N. ↓, Kristal P. ↑,
84', Burch M. 🟨,
86', 2 - 4, Fofana D. D. ⚽, Simo J. (A),
86', Simo J. ↓, Izquierdo I. ↑,
90+2', Njoh L. ↓, Djoho S. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Thun won 5.

Recent form of Thun has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Servette has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Servette may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Thun: Gutbub M. (Injury) Kait M. (Foot Injury) Montolio G. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Servette: Frick J. (Surgery) Kadile J. (Hamstring Injury) Lopes T. (Muscle Injury) Severin Y. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Thun won 10 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 29:16. (average 1.8:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Thun won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 22:9. (average 2.4:1).

Outrights of Swiss Super League for now

Servette: 2.4% Thun: 1.28%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Servette	9	3	1	5	11:13	-2	10
9	Thun	9	3	1	5	15:23	-8	10

Last Results with these Odds

Servette - the odds 2.31 are the expected chance of winning is 40.74%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Thun
Swiss Super League
12.09.26	Thun - Grasshoppers	0:1 ✺
06.09.26	Sion - Thun	3:2 ✺
02.09.26	Thun - Lausanne-Sport	0:0 ✺
30.08.26	St. Gallen - Thun	3:4 ✺
UEFA Europa League
27.08.26	Thun - Lech Poznań	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 LLTWT
- Servette FC
Swiss Super League
13.09.26	Lausanne-Sport - Servette	0:1 ✺
06.09.26	Servette - St. Gallen	0:2 ✺
03.09.26	Lugano - Servette	1:0 ✺
29.08.26	Servette - Luzern	1:1 ✺
Swiss Cup
15.08.26	Bavois - Servette	0:7 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Swiss Super League
08.02.26	Servette - Thun	1:3
08.11.25	Servette - Thun	0:1
18.10.25	Thun - Servette	3:1
Swiss Cup
27.10.21	Thun - Servette	4:1
Swiss Super League
22.07.20	Thun - Servette	5:1
02.02.20	Servette - Thun	2:0
14.12.19	Servette - Thun	2:1

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