Match Info

Cearense - Round 5

Date: 21 January 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Presidente Vargas (Fortaleza)


	Tirol		Ceará

	1	X	2
	10	4.6	1.27
				Watch
	12.26	4.78	1.26	Watch
	12	4	1.25
	12.9	4.5	1.25
	13	5	1.26
Avarage Now (Initially)	12.03 ↑ (10.54)	4.58 ↑ (4.14)	1.26 ↓ (1.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tirol
7.6%

Draw
19.9%

Ceará
72.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

8.7%

22.2%

69.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tirol has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Ceará has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

Tirol - Ceará Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Rayr (G) 22. Ze Augusto 16. Lucas Gomes (C) 15. Roni Lobo 3. Lima J. 25. Fernandinho 11. Rafinha 7. Rochinha 17. Sidin 8. Natan Baiano 9. Wilkson	94. Bruno Ferreira (G) 21. Alex Silva 26. Richardson (C) 33. Eder 17. Fernando 31. Lucas Lima 8. Matheus Araujo 29. Vina 7. Pedro Henrique 11. Fernandinho 71. Gabriel Rocha
Substitutes
2. Dieguinho 13. Gutemberg 20. Janeudo 12. Jonh Wilquer (G) 19. Marley 14. Renan 5. Rodrigo Correia 6. Taua 10. Topetti 18. Walison Madalena 4. Ytalo 21. Yuri	86. Aloisio 14. Eric Melo 63. Gilmar 35. Giulio 81. Joao Gabriel 23. Jorge (G) 90. Kaua Ziegler 99. Lucca 2. Ramos R. 1. Richard (G) 25. Vinicius Zanocelo

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
1', 0 - 1, Vina ⚽, Pedro Henrique (A),
25', Richardson 🟨,
45+1', Roni Lobo 🟨,
45+1', Alex Silva 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 3)
46', Rafinha ↓, Walison Madalena ↑,
46', Wilkson ↓, Janeudo ↑,
60', Pedro Henrique 🟨,
60', Natan Baiano ↓, Yuri ↑,
61', Richardson ↓, Vinicius Zanocelo ↑,
61', Fernandinho ↓, Lucca ↑,
65', 0 - 2, Pedro Henrique ⚽,
69', Lucas Lima ↓, Joao Gabriel ↑,
69', Pedro Henrique ↓, Kaua Ziegler ↑,
73', Alex Silva ↓, Ramos R. ↑,
78', Lima J. ↓, Taua ↑,
79', Sidin ↓, Rodrigo Correia ↑,
85', 1 - 2, Yuri ⚽,
87', Ze Augusto 🟨,
88', 1 - 3, Vina (Penalty Awarded),
90+1', 1 - 4, Matheus Araujo ⚽,
90+5', Kaua Ziegler 🟥,

Preview

Tirol is Cearense (Relegation)

Ceará is Qualified for Cearense (Play Offs Semi~finals)

Tirol is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Ceará has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Ceará may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Tirol has had a series of away games.

In this match, Ceará is the obvious favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Tirol won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Centro de Formação de Atletas do Tirol
Brazilian Campeonato Cearense
14.01.26	Iguatu - Tirol	0:0 ✺
11.01.26	Maranguape - Tirol	1:0 ✺
07.01.26	Tirol - Floresta	0:2 ✺
Brazilian Copa Fares Lopes
05.12.25	Maracanã - Tirol	2:1 ✺
01.12.25	Fortaleza B - Tirol	1:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 TLLLW
- Ceará SC
Brazilian Campeonato Cearense
17.01.26	Ceará - Iguatu	1:1 ✺
14.01.26	Ceará - Maranguape	1:0 ✺
10.01.26	Floresta - Ceará	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
07.12.25	Ceará - Palmeiras	1:3 ✺
03.12.25	Flamengo - Ceará	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.5 TWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Cearense
18.01.25	Ceará - Tirol	2:1

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