Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 38

Date: 7 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Castelão (Fortaleza)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Caze TV, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, TV Record, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball
Mexico	Fanatiz
Turkey	Spor Smart 2
Usa	Fanatiz


	Ceará		Palmeiras

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.3	3.4	Watch
	2.18	3.15	3.35
	2.25	3.21	3.51
	2.18	3.24	3.5	Watch
	2.2	3	3.3
	2.22	3.27	3.5	Watch
	2.2	3.33	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.19 ↓ (2.85)	3.21 ↑ (3.15)	3.42 ↑ (2.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ceará
43.1%

Draw
29.4%

Palmeiras
27.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.1%

30%

36.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.2%

30.8%

37.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ceará has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ceará's performance.

Palmeiras has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Palmeiras might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ceará than the current prediction. (-10.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ceará that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (+10.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Palmeiras could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
68.2%	4.5%	27.3%

Ceará - Palmeiras Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Ceará will win (votes: 15 - 68.2%). Palmeiras will win (votes: 6 - 27.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 4.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ceará: 48.7% – 87.7%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Ceará will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
94. Bruno Ferreira (G) 2. Ramos R. 44. Marcos Victor 23. Willian Machado (C) 79. Matheus Bahia 20. Diego 25. Vinicius Zanocelo 10. Lucas Mugni 27. Galeano A. 9. Pedro Raul 77. Fernandinho	14. Marcelo Lomba (C) 4. Giay A. 3. Bruno Fuchs 43. Benedetti 6. Jefte 5. Moreno A. 48. Larson 18. Mauricio 17. Torres F. 19. Sosa R. 42. Lopez J.
Substitutes
11. Aylon 33. Eder 30. Fabiano 88. Fernando Sobral 80. Guilherme Luiz 97. Lourenco 3. Marllon 17. Paulo Baya 7. Pedro Henrique 1. Richard (G) 26. Richardson 29. Vina	40. Allan 11. Bruno Rodrigues 1. Carlos Miguel (G) 45. Erick Bele 12. Khellven 72. Lima K. (G) 31. Luighi 50. Luis Felipe 13. Micael 37. Riquelme Fillipi
Coaches
Leo Conde	Abel Ferreira

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
12', 1 - 0, Pedro Raul ⚽, Willian Machado (A),
17', 1 - 1, Torres F. ⚽, Bruno Fuchs (A),
35', Larson 🟨,
45+2', Fernandinho 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Diego ↓, Fernando Sobral ↑,
59', Fernando Sobral 🟨,
61', 1 - 2, Sosa R. ⚽,
62', Fernandinho ↓, Pedro Henrique ↑,
62', Lucas Mugni ↓, Vina ↑,
65', 1 - 3, Lopez J. ⚽,
68', Torres F. ↓, Luighi ↑,
68', Larson ↓, Allan ↑,
73', Lopez J. ↓, Bruno Rodrigues ↑,
78', Mauricio ↓, Erick Bele ↑,
78', Moreno A. ↓, Luis Felipe ↑,
79', Galeano A. ↓, Lourenco ↑,
79', Willian Machado 🟨,
86', Luis Felipe 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 15 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).

Palmeiras is Qualified for Copa Libertadores (Group Stage )

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ceará won 1.

Ceará has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Palmeiras has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Ceará might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Palmeiras: Lucas Evangelista (Hamstring Injury) Paulinho (Leg Injury) Piquerez J. (Red Card) Raphael Veiga (Yellow Cards) Weverton (Finger Injury)

There are questionable in Ceará: Pedro Henrique (Injury)

There are questionable in Palmeiras: Felipe Anderson (Injury)

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Ceará won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 19:32. (average 1.1:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Ceará won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:12. (average 1.5:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Palmeiras - the odds 2.56 are the expected chance of winning is 36.89%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ceará SC
Brazilian Serie A
03.12.25	Flamengo - Ceará	1:0 ✺
29.11.25	Ceará - Cruzeiro	1:1 ✺
24.11.25	Mirassol - Ceará	3:0 ✺
20.11.25	Ceará - Internacional RS	1:2 ✺
09.11.25	Corinthians - Ceará	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 LTLLW
- Palmeiras
Brazilian Serie A
03.12.25	Atlético Mineiro - Palmeiras	0:3 ✺
Copa Libertadores
29.11.25	Palmeiras - Flamengo	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
25.11.25	Grêmio - Palmeiras	3:2 ✺
22.11.25	Palmeiras - Fluminense	0:0 ✺
19.11.25	Palmeiras - Vitória Salvador	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 WLLTT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
10.08.25	Palmeiras - Ceará	2:1
Copa do Brasil
22.05.25	Palmeiras - Ceará	3:0
30.04.25	Ceará - Palmeiras	0:1
Brazilian Serie A
30.07.22	Ceará - Palmeiras	1:2
09.04.22	Palmeiras - Ceará	2:3
09.12.21	Palmeiras - Ceará	1:0
20.10.21	Ceará - Palmeiras	1:2

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