Match Info

Cearense - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 15 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Domingão (Horizonte)


	Floresta		Ceará

	1	X	2
	7.1	3.95	1.43	Watch
	7.91	4.04	1.37
	25.00	13.15	1.01	Watch
	8	3.6	1.4
	9.2	4	1.35
	8.5	4.33	1.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	10.95 ↑ (6.45)	5.51 ↑ (3.81)	1.33 ↓ (1.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Floresta
8.9%

Draw
17.7%

Ceará
73.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

14.3%

24.1%

61.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

13.9%

23.4%

63.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Floresta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Floresta's form might have worsened.

Ceará has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ceará's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Floresta than the current prediction. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ceará than the current prediction. (-9.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ceará, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Floresta - Ceará Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Tiepo (G) 27. Marco Antonio 3. Eduardo 4. Joao Victor 14. Cedric 17. Nonato (C) 5. Danrley 6. Diego Matos 10. Matheusinho 9. Joao Celeri 7. Bismark	1. Richard (C) 2. Ramos R. 63. Gilmar 33. Eder 17. Fernando 31. Lucas Lima 25. Vinicius Zanocelo 7. Pedro Henrique 29. Vina 11. Fernandinho 99. Lucca
Substitutes
1. Araujo Silva B. (G) 30. Arilson 19. Daniel 25. Diogo Mourao 15. Eliandro 21. Emerson 12. Goncalves V. (G) 16. Marcelo Maia 26. Thailor 20. Vitinho	21. Alex Silva 41. Dias G. (G) 14. Eric Melo 81. Joao Gabriel 23. Jorge (G) 10. Juan Alano 18. Julio Cesar 90. Kaua Ziegler 13. Luiz Otavio 98. Matheusinho 40. Melk 26. Richardson

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
13', Fernandinho 🟨,
17', 0 - 1, Ramos R. ⚽, Lucca (A),
40', 0 - 2, Vina ⚽,
44', Nonato 🟨,
44', Vinicius Zanocelo 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
60', Bismark ↓, Vitinho ↑,
60', Matheusinho ↓, Eliandro ↑,
61', Lucca ↓, Juan Alano ↑,
61', Fernandinho ↓, Matheusinho ↑,
71', Joao Celeri ↓, Daniel ↑,
78', 0 - 3, Vina ⚽,
80', Fernando ↓, Alex Silva ↑,
80', Pedro Henrique ↓, Melk ↑,
80', Gilmar ↓, Luiz Otavio ↑,
84', Nonato ↓, Marcelo Maia ↑,

Preview

First leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Floresta won 0.

Floresta has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Ceará is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Ceará may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Ceará is the clear favorite.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Floresta won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 5:14. (average 0.7:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Floresta won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:8. (average 1.3:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Floresta EC
Brazilian Campeonato Cearense
07.02.26	Horizonte - Floresta	0:1 ✺
02.02.26	Floresta - Ferroviário Fortaleza	0:0 ✺
26.01.26	Fortaleza - Floresta	1:0 ✺
21.01.26	Floresta - Iguatu	1:1 ✺
17.01.26	Maranguape - Floresta	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 WTLTW
- Ceará SC
Brazilian Campeonato Cearense
08.02.26	Ceará - Fortaleza	0:0 ✺
01.02.26	Ceará - Horizonte	4:0 ✺
25.01.26	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Ceará	1:5 ✺
21.01.26	Tirol - Ceará	1:4 ✺
17.01.26	Ceará - Iguatu	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 TWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Cearense
10.01.26	Floresta - Ceará	0:1
27.01.24	Ceará - Floresta	1:0
10.04.19	Ceará - Floresta	3:0
27.03.19	Floresta - Ceará	2:2
03.02.19	Floresta - Ceará	0:4
22.03.18	Ceará - Floresta	2:0
24.01.18	Floresta - Ceará	3:1

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