Match Info

First League - Round 25

Date: 15 October 2026, Thursday


	Tobol 2		Jaiyq

	1	X	2
	4.75	4.33	1.49
	5.50	3.85	1.45
	4.15	4.25	1.48
	5.9	3.87	1.5	Watch
	6.07	3.91	1.51	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.27 ↓ (5.61)	4.04 ↓ (4.67)	1.49 ↑ (1.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 0.75

The best margin for this event is 8.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tobol 2
17.1%

Draw
22.3%

Jaiyq
60.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

16%

19.3%

64.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

16.1%

19.2%

64.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tobol 2 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Jaiyq has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tobol 2 than the current prediction. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jaiyq than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
24', 1 - 0, Musaev E. ⚽, Zinadin A. (A),
45', 2 - 0, Nurgeldinov N. ⚽, Musaev E. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
54', 3 - 0, Zinadin A. ⚽,
57', 3 - 1, Yakudi K. ⚽,
79', 4 - 1, Nurgeldinov N. ⚽,

Preview

A determined lower-tier side seeks an essential result against mid-table opposition (ranked 13th in the Relegation and 6th).

Tobol 2 is Relegated to.

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

Jaiyq holds a commanding advantage according to the oddsmakers.

In the last 1 head-to-head meeting, Tobol 2 has recorded 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 0:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Jaiyq	25	9	5	11	23:31	-8	32
13	Tobol 2 ✔	25	5	5	15	48:62	-14	20

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tobol Kostanay 2
Kazakh First League
08.10.26	Aktobe 2 - Tobol 2	4:4 ✺
19.09.26	Tobol 2 - Kaspiy Aktau 2	1:0 ✺
11.09.26	Batyr Ekibastuz - Tobol 2	1:5 ✺
28.08.26	Taraz - Tobol 2	3:1 ✺
20.08.26	Tobol 2 - Khan Tengri	3:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21 TWWLL
- FC Jaiyq
Kazakh First League
09.10.26	Jaiyq - Turan Turkistan	1:1 ✺
17.09.26	Akademiya Ontustik - Jaiyq	0:0 ✺
11.09.26	Jaiyq - Shakhter Karagandy	1:2 ✺
04.09.26	Jaiyq - Yelimay 2	2:0 ✺
28.08.26	Aktobe 2 - Jaiyq	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 TTLWL

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh First League
09.07.26	Jaiyq - Tobol 2	1:0

Tobol 2 - Jaiyq: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide