Match Info

First League - Round 23

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday


	Tobol 2		Kaspiy Aktau 2

	1	X	2
	3.30	4.00	1.75
	3.2	4.05	1.78
	3.46	4.36	1.74	Watch
	3.15	4.05	1.79
	3.21	4.1	1.81	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.26 ↓ (3.46)	4.11 ↓ (4.36)	1.77 ↑ (1.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Tobol 2
27.5%

Draw
21.8%

Kaspiy Aktau 2
50.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.4%

21%

52.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.7%

20.4%

54.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tobol 2 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Kaspiy Aktau 2 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tobol 2 than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kaspiy Aktau 2 than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
43', 1 - 0, Bakhytkiriev S. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

Crucial home points are at stake for a lower-table team looking to climb out of danger (ranked 13th in the Relegation and 9th).

Tobol 2 has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Kaspiy 2 is experiencing a dip in performance (last 5 matches: 1 win).

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Kaspiy 2 holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 1 head-to-head meeting, Tobol 2 has recorded 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 1:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Kaspij Aktau 2	24	8	4	12	35:41	-6	28
13	Tobol 2	24	4	5	15	44:61	-17	17

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tobol Kostanay 2
Kazakh First League
11.09.26	Batyr Ekibastuz - Tobol 2	1:5 ✺
28.08.26	Taraz - Tobol 2	3:1 ✺
20.08.26	Tobol 2 - Khan Tengri	3:4 ✺
13.08.26	Astana 2 - Tobol 2	0:4 ✺
31.07.26	Tobol 2 - Shakhter Karagandy	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 31.9 WLLWL
- FC Kaspiy Aktau 2
Kazakh First League
11.09.26	Kaspiy Aktau 2 - Arys	1:2 ✺
04.09.26	Kaspiy Aktau 2 - Turan Turkistan	0:3 ✺
21.08.26	Jaiyq - Kaspiy Aktau 2	0:0 ✺
14.08.26	Kaspiy Aktau 2 - Yelimay 2	2:1 ✺
06.08.26	Shakhter Karagandy - Kaspiy Aktau 2	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 LLTWL

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh First League
25.06.26	Kaspiy Aktau 2 - Tobol 2	2:1

Upcoming Matches