Match Info

J2/J3 League - Round 9

Date: 5 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Pocarisweat Stadium (Naruto)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	AbemaTV, DAZN Japan


	Tokushima Vortis		Osaka

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.25	2.88	3.15	Watch
	2.35	2.93	3.28
	2.27	2.95	3.45	Watch
	2.2	2.8	3.25
	2.06	2.88	3.76	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.23 ↑ (1.65)	2.89 ↓ (4.04)	3.38 ↓ (4.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tokushima Vortis
41.2%

Draw
31.7%

Osaka
27.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.4%

23%

20.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.1%

21.9%

19.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tokushima Vortis has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-15.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Tokushima Vortis's form might have worsened.

Osaka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Osaka's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tokushima Vortis than the current prediction. (+17.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Tokushima Vortis, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Osaka than the current prediction. (-7.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Osaka, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	50%	0%

Tokushima Vortis - Osaka Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Tokushima will win (votes: 3 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Nagaishi T. (G) 4. Kaique 3. Yamada N. 44. Yamaguchi T. 8. Iwao K. 22. Yanagisawa K. 7. Kodama S. 10. Sugimoto T. 24. Takada S. 11. Lucas Barcelos 9. Thonny Anderson	1. Sugawara H. (G) 11. Tsutsumi S. 40. Kawakami R. 4. Yamashita R. 13. Mima K. 10. Kubo R. 37. Iesaka Y. 14. Sumida S. 28. Toya T. 9. Shimada T. 7. Kitsui T.
Substitutes
31. Hasegawa T. (G) 27. Izuchukwu L. 14. Kajiya Y. 6. Kanuma N. 20. Matsuda K. 19. Miyazaki J. 97. Moyo M. 55. Shigehiro T. 15. Yamakoshi K.	26. Dohi K. 19. Masuda S. 5. Minakuchi Y. 41. Nose R. 31. Sekinuma N. (G) 29. Sugawara R. 6. Tachino S. 99. Vinicius Souza 27. Wada H.
Coaches
Engels G.	Yabuta M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
9', 1 - 0, Lucas Barcelos ⚽,
28', Sumida S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Toya T. ↓, Nose R. ↑,
59', Sumida S. ↓, Dohi K. ↑,
60', Kitsui T. ↓, Masuda S. ↑,
64', Yamashita R. 🟨,
64', Takada S. ↓, Miyazaki J. ↑,
73', Kodama S. ↓, Kanuma N. ↑,
73', Thonny Anderson ↓, Kajiya Y. ↑,
79', Shimada T. ↓, Vinicius Souza ↑,
84', Kubo R. ↓, Wada H. ↑,
89', Lucas Barcelos ↓, Moyo M. ↑,
90+1', Vinicius Souza 🟨,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ J2/J3 League (Play Offs: ) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ J2/J3 League (Placement matches: )).

Tokushima is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Osaka's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Tokushima is seen as the favorite.

We predict that Tokushima will win today's game, with odds of 1.72.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tokushima Vortis
Japan J2 J3 League
29.03.26	Tokushima Vortis - Kochi United	3:0 ✺
22.03.26	Imabari - Tokushima Vortis	2:1 ✺
15.03.26	Tokushima Vortis - Kamatamare Sanuki	1:0 ✺
08.03.26	Zweigen Kanazawa - Tokushima Vortis	0:4 ✺
28.02.26	Ehime - Tokushima Vortis	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WLWWW
- FC Osaka
Japan J2 J3 League
29.03.26	Osaka - Albirex Niigata	0:1 penalties ✺
22.03.26	Zweigen Kanazawa - Osaka	1:0 penalties ✺
15.03.26	Ehime - Osaka	0:1 ✺
06.03.26	Osaka - Nara Club	2:0 ✺
28.02.26	Kataller Toyama - Osaka	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 LLWWT

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