Match Info

NORTH & CENTRAL AMERICA: Leagues Cup - Play Offs - 1/16-finals

Date: 9 August 2024, Friday

Location: Shell Energy Stadium (Houston, TX)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Toluca		Houston Dynamo

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.4	2.63	Watch
	2.4	3.25	2.45
	2.45	3.4	2.5	Watch
	2.73	3.6	2.67
	2.67	3.37	2.64	Watch
	2.61	3.58	2.55	Watch
	2.45	3.4	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.55 ↑ (2.21)	3.43 ↓ (3.5)	2.56 ↓ (2.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toluca
36.5%

Draw
27.2%

Houston Dynamo
36.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.7%

26.4%

31.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.1%

25%

30.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toluca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Toluca's form might have worsened.

Houston Dynamo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (+7.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Toluca, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Houston Dynamo than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Houston Dynamo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Toluca - Houston Dynamo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Tiago Volpi (G) 17. Garcia Caprizo B. A. 4. Bruno Mendez 13. Luan 20. Gallardo J. 23. Baeza C. 14. Ruiz M. 11. Araujo M. 25. Vega A. 10. Angulo J. 26. Paulinho	12. Clark S. (G) 25. Dorsey G. 28. Sviatchenko E. 31. Micael 2. Escobar F. 16. Herrera H. 6. Artur 15. Blessing L. 8. Bassi A. 18. Aliyu I. 10. Ponce E.
Substitutes
24. Amaya F. 198. Arteaga V. 181. Beltran R. (G) 7. Dominguez Chonteco J. P. 22. Garcia L. (G) 19. Lopez I. 16. Meneses J. 31. Morales R. 8. Orrantia C. 184. Villegas A. 190. Violante I.	4. Bartlow E. 37. Ennali L. 11. Ferreira S. 14. Gaines M. 21. Gregus J. 27. Kowalczyk S. 35. Raines B. 22. Schmitt T. 3. Smith B. 5. Steres D. 13. Tarbell A. (G)
Coaches
Alves R.	Olsen B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
39', 1 - 0, Angulo J. ⚽, Araujo M. (A),
41', 1 - 1, Ponce E. ⚽, Bassi A. (A),
45+3', Gallardo J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
59', Aliyu I. ↓, Ennali L. ↑,
59', Blessing L. ↓, Kowalczyk S. ↑,
62', 1 - 2, Micael ⚽, Escobar F. (A),
68', Baeza C. ↓, Meneses J. ↑,
69', Vega A. ↓, Amaya F. ↑,
69', Garcia Caprizo B. A. ↓, Dominguez Chonteco J. P. ↑,
74', Angulo J. ↓, Lopez I. ↑,
78', Araujo M. ↓, Morales R. ↑,
84', Bassi A. ↓, Raines B. ↑,
84', Ponce E. ↓, Ferreira S. ↑,
87', Artur 🟨,
90+2', Herrera H. ↓, Bartlow E. ↑,
90+6', 2 - 2, Lopez I. ⚽, Gallardo J. (A),
Penalties (5 - 4)
1, Dorsey G. (Pen),
1, Tiago Volpi (Pen),
2, Kowalczyk S. (Pen),
2, Morales R. (Pen),
3, Ferreira S. (Pen),
3, Paulinho (Pen),
4, Ennali L. (Pen),
4, Gallardo J. (Pen),
5, Sviatchenko E. (Pen),
5, Lopez I. (Pen),

Preview

Toluca in the last match got series victories and it is in a super good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Houston is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recently Toluca have a series of home games.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

There will not play in Houston: Quinones N. (Knee Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Toluca
CONCACAF League Cup
05.08.24	Toluca - Sporting Kansas City	2:1 ✺
01.08.24	Toluca - Chicago Fire	3:1 ✺
Mexican Liga MX
20.07.24	Cruz Azul - Toluca	1:1 ✺
17.07.24	Toluca - Mazatlan	3:0 ✺
13.07.24	Toluca - Juárez	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 WWTWW
- Houston Dynamo
CONCACAF League Cup
05.08.24	Houston Dynamo - Real Salt Lake	3:0 ✺
27.07.24	Houston Dynamo - Atlas	0:1 ✺
MLS
20.07.24	Vancouver Whitecaps - Houston Dynamo	3:4 ✺
17.07.24	San Jose Earthquakes - Houston Dynamo	0:1 ✺
13.07.24	Houston Dynamo - Minnesota United	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 WLWWT

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