The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Club América 34.5%
Draw 28.5%
Toluca 37%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
38.4%
28%
33.7%
Our Initial ML Estimation
41%
29.9%
31.6%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Club América has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)
Toluca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Club América than the current prediction. (+6.5%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Club América, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (-5.4%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Toluca, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
50%
30%
20%
Club América - Toluca Predictions
Users Predictions:
10 users predict this event. América will win (votes: 5 - 50%). Toluca will win (votes: 2 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 30%). Confidence interval (95%) for América: 19% – 81%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
30. Cota R. (G) 3. Reyes I. 4. Caceres S. 32. Vazquez M. 10. Zendejas A. 6. dos Santos J. (C) 17. Rodrigo Dourado 26. Borja C. 23. Raphael Veiga 12. Violante I. 7. Rodriguez B.
22. Garcia L. (G) 19. Simon S. 2. Barbosa D. 4. Bruno Mendez 25. del Villar E. 20. Gallardo J. 10. Angulo J. 5. Romero F. 8. Castro N. 9. Vega A. (C) 26. Paulinho
Substitutes
5. Alvarez K. 13. Cervantes A. 22. Espinosa Dovat T. N. 20. Gutierrez Torres A. H. 29. Juarez R. 45. Lima 33. Salas P. 28. Sanchez E. 21. Tapia F. (G) 19. Zuniga J.
24. Arce F. 3. Briseno A. 7. Cordova S. 1. Gonzalez H. (G) 11. Helinho 17. Isais M. 15. Perez P. 27. Rossi F. 14. Ruiz M. 23. Virgen O.
Coaches
Jardine A.
Mohamed A.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 0)
19', Vazquez M. 🟨,
44', 1 - 0, Rodriguez B. ⚽, Violante I. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Barbosa D. ↓, Helinho ↑,
50', 2 - 0, Rodriguez B. ⚽, Zendejas A. (A),
52', Violante I. 🟨,
53', 2 - 1, Vazquez M. (Own goal),
57', Vazquez M. ↓, Juarez R. ↑,
57', Violante I. ↓, Alvarez K. ↑,
63', Angulo J. ↓, Ruiz M. ↑,
73', Gallardo J. 🟨,
80', Raphael Veiga ↓, Cervantes A. ↑,
86', Borja C. ↓, Espinosa Dovat T. N. ↑,
87', Rodriguez B. ↓, Zuniga J. ↑,
89', del Villar E. ↓, Rossi F. ↑,
89', Vega A. ↓, Perez P. ↑,
90+7', Helinho 🟥,
Preview
The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals))
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, América won 1.
Recent form of América has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).
In recent matches, Toluca has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
Toluca may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
There will not play in América: Davila V.
(Knee Injury)
Malagon L.
(Achilles Tendon Injury)
Martin H.
(Hamstring Injury)
There are questionable in América: Espinoza D.
(Knee Injury)
There are questionable in Toluca: Pereira F.
(Injury)
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, América won 8 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 29:25. (average 1.5:1.3).
Including home matches between the teams, América won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 21:6. (average 1.9:0.5).
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
1
Club America
9
6
2
1
21:10
11
20
2
Toluca
11
6
2
3
25:15
10
20
Last Results with these Odds
Club América - the odds 2.37 are the expected chance of winning is 38.36%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.
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Cota R. (G) 
Caceres S. 
Zendejas A. 
Rodrigo Dourado 
Borja C. 
Simon S. 
Paulinho 
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