Match Info

Liga MX - Apertura - Round 11

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Nemesio Díez (Toluca)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, Caliente TV, Fox Sports, Tubi TV
South-america	ViX Latin America


	Toluca		Mazatlan

	1	X	2
	1.22	7	9.5	Watch
	1.21	6.4	11
	1.24	6.84	10.78
	1.29	5.97	8.14	Watch
	1.26	7.08	9.58	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.24 ↓ (1.28)	6.66 ↑ (5.74)	9.8 ↑ (8.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toluca
76.1%

Draw
14.2%

Mazatlan
9.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

72.8%

16.2%

11%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toluca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

Mazatlan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Toluca - Mazatlan Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Toluca (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gonzalez H. (G) 19. Simon S. 17. Isais M. 4. Bruno Mendez 3. Briseno A. 24. Arce F. 16. Herrera H. 10. Angulo J. 8. Castro N. 9. Vega A. (C) 31. Morales R.	1. Gutierrez D. (G) 15. Colula B. 5. Almada F. 19. Merolla L. 14. Zaleta M. 11. Barcenas Y. 16. Esquivel J. 23. Sierra J. 199. Gonzalez I. 10. Benedetti N. (C) 9. Duarte A.
Substitutes
207. Arroyo J. 33. Arteaga V. 2. Barbosa D. 250. Estrada J. 22. Garcia L. (G) 11. Helinho 26. Paulinho 6. Pereira F. 5. Romero F. 14. Ruiz M.	7. Dudu 8. Fierro S. 2. Garcia J. 28. Hernandez D. 20. Lainez M. 26. Leyva A. 6. Meraz R. 33. Rodriguez R. (G) 31. Saavedra Nevarez A. A. 18. Torres A.
Coaches
Mohamed A.	Siboldi R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
22', Merolla L. 🟨,
25', 1 - 0, Herrera H. ⚽, Morales R. (A),
26', Colula B. 🟨,
42', Isais M. 🟨,
45+7', Herrera H. 🟥,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Zaleta M. ↓, Lainez M. ↑,
49', 2 - 0, Bruno Mendez ⚽, Briseno A. (A),
58', Barcenas Y. ↓, Hernandez D. ↑,
58', Merolla L. ↓, Leyva A. ↑,
63', Castro N. ↓, Barbosa D. ↑,
63', Angulo J. ↓, Ruiz M. ↑,
74', Esquivel J. ↓, Dudu ↑,
74', Colula B. ↓, Meraz R. ↑,
75', Arce F. ↓, Romero F. ↑,
75', Morales R. ↓, Paulinho ↑,
84', Vega A. ↓, Pereira F. ↑,
89', 3 - 0, Paulinho (Pen),
90+2', 3 - 1, Benedetti N. ⚽,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 3.

Toluca is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Mazatlan is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Mazatlan may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Toluca is the undeniable favorite.

There will not play in Toluca: Gallardo J. (Yellow Cards) Luan (Injury) del Villar E. (International duty)

There are questionable in Toluca: Helinho (Injury)

There are questionable in Mazatlan: Herrera A. (Injury) Intriago J. (Hamstring Injury)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 25:13. (average 2.3:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Toluca won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 17:5. (average 3.4:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Toluca
Mexican Liga MX
24.09.25	Toluca - Monterrey	6:2 ✺
20.09.25	Chivas Guadalajara - Toluca	0:3 ✺
13.09.25	Toluca - Puebla	3:1 ✺
29.08.25	Atlético San Luis - Toluca	1:3 ✺
23.08.25	Cruz Azul - Toluca	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 WWWWL
- Mazatlan FC
Mexican Liga MX
23.09.25	Club León - Mazatlan	2:2 ✺
19.09.25	Mazatlan - Atlas	1:1 ✺
12.09.25	Mazatlan - UNAM	1:4 ✺
29.08.25	Juárez - Mazatlan	1:0 ✺
23.08.25	Mazatlan - Tigres UANL	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 TTLLT

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX
24.01.25	Mazatlan - Toluca	2:1
Club Friendly
04.01.25	Mazatlan - Toluca	1:3
Mexican Liga MX
17.07.24	Toluca - Mazatlan	3:0
20.01.24	Toluca - Mazatlan	4:1
10.11.23	Mazatlan - Toluca	1:0
12.03.23	Toluca - Mazatlan	4:1
16.09.22	Mazatlan - Toluca	1:1

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