Match Info

Liga MX Women - Apertura - Round 11

Date: 12 September 2025, Friday

Location: Estadio Nemesio Díez (Toluca)

Referee: Hernandez I. F. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, ViX Gratis, VIX+
South-america	ViX Latin America


	Toluca		Monterrey

	1	X	2
	2.08	3.55	2.88
	2.13	3.8	2.98
	1.96	3.60	3.49	Watch
	2.17	3.62	3.02	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.09 ↑ (1.99)	3.64 ↑ (3.3)	3.09 ↓ (3.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toluca
44.5%

Draw
25.5%

Monterrey
30%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.2%

27.9%

26%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.7%

27%

25.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toluca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Monterrey has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Monterrey than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Toluca - Monterrey Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Toluca will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Monterrey will win (votes: 2 - 50%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Monterrey (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Monterrey (2.04) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Monterrey (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Martinez V. (G) 5. Erceg A. 28. Henry A. (C) 99. Le Sommer E. 13. Lopez V. 2. Martinez K. 7. Peraza C. 15. Ramirez M. 25. Robert F. 21. Valadez N. 6. Vazquez S.	28. Manrique P. (G) 29. Bosch L. 7. Burkenroad C. 14. Calderon A. 34. Day Silva 23. del Campo V. 22. Garcia D. (C) 17. Garcia L. 2. Monroy D. 12. Seoposenwe J. 27. Servin F.
Substitutes
22. Abam M. 8. Cortez V. 10. Cuevas B. 16. Fernandez L. 11. Guatemala D. 3. Lopez J. 33. Thompson K. (G) 17. van de Sanden S. 19. Vazquez E.	8. Evangelista Chavez D. L. 9. Gielnik E. 26. Martinez K. 19. Paz A. (G) 10. Perez N. 24. Restrepo M. 3. Sanchez T. 15. Simental S. 30. Soto A.
Coaches
Lair P.	Valverde A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
16', Lopez V. 🟨,
24', 0 - 1, Bosch L. ⚽,
43', Bosch L. ↓, Soto A. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Valadez N. ↓, van de Sanden S. ↑,
46', Vazquez S. ↓, Fernandez L. ↑,
56', Peraza C. ↓, Cortez V. ↑,
64', Garcia D. ↓, Restrepo M. ↑,
64', Burkenroad C. ↓, Gielnik E. ↑,
64', Garcia L. ↓, Evangelista Chavez D. L. ↑,
71', Lopez V. ↓, Abam M. ↑,
77', Servin F. ↓, Perez N. ↑,
86', Robert F. ↓, Lopez J. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX Women (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX Women (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 1.

Toluca is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Monterrey has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 10:28. (average 0.7:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Toluca won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 8:9. (average 1.1:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Toluca Women
Mexican Liga MX Women
06.09.25	UNAM - Toluca	1:2 ✺
31.08.25	Toluca - Querétaro	2:0 ✺
26.08.25	Cruz Azul - Toluca	4:3 ✺
17.08.25	Juárez - Toluca	0:0 ✺
13.08.25	Toluca - Chivas Guadalajara	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 WWLTW
- CF Monterrey Women
Mexican Liga MX Women
07.09.25	Tigres UANL - Monterrey	4:0 ✺
29.08.25	Monterrey - Juárez	1:1 ✺
26.08.25	Chivas Guadalajara - Monterrey	1:1 ✺
CONCACAF Champions Cup Women
20.08.25	NJ NY Gotham - Monterrey	2:1 ✺
Mexican Liga MX Women
16.08.25	Monterrey - Santos Laguna	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 LTTLW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX Women
30.03.25	Toluca - Monterrey	2:2
11.11.24	Monterrey - Toluca	1:0
08.11.24	Toluca - Monterrey	1:0
26.08.24	Monterrey - Toluca	5:0
18.04.24	Monterrey - Toluca	1:0
14.07.23	Toluca - Monterrey	1:1
17.04.23	Toluca - Monterrey	2:0

Toluca - Monterrey: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide