Match Info

PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal 2 - Round 8

Date: 12 October 2024, Saturday

Location: Estádio João Cardoso (Tondela)

Referee: Rodrigues A. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV1


	Tondela		Leixões

	1	X	2
	2.55	3	2.75
	2.45	2.9	2.7
	2.55	3.1	2.8
	2.69	3.05	2.99
	2.63	2.92	2.93	Watch
	2.4	3	2.75
	2.55	3.04	2.88	Watch
	2.55	3.1	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.55 ↓ (2.65)	3.01 ↓ (3.07)	2.83 ↑ (2.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tondela
36.4%

Draw
30.8%

Leixões
32.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.6%

30.7%

33.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.6%

31.6%

34.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tondela has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

Leixões has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tondela than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leixões than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	60%	20%

Tondela - Leixões Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Tondela will win (votes: 2 - 20%). Leixões will win (votes: 2 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 60%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 29.6% – 90.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Bernardo (G) 2. Bebeto 5. Afonso J. 34. Alves R. (C) 60. Maviram E. 8. Tavares H. 97. Cicero 11. Costinha 30. Ramos R. 21. Maranhao 17. Roberto	24. Figueira Daniel (G) 12. Jean Felipe 3. Rafael Santos 14. Basto H. 15. Simaozinho 11. Andre 6. Paulinho 16. Simoes A. 91. Valente R. (C) 9. Rafael Martins 7. Werton
Substitutes
23. Cascavel 6. Ceitil A. 26. Cunha N. 48. Manso T. 9. Miro 70. Moudjatovic M. 4. Pola J. 1. Souza G. (G) 18. Talocha	13. Evrard Zag 27. Fabinho 23. Henrique Gelain 21. Mozino 77. Ndo R. 20. Oliveira J. 10. Paulite 5. Rafael 51. Stefanovic I. (G)
Coaches
Pinto L.	Fangueiro C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
4', Rafael Santos 🟨,
26', 0 - 1, Valente R. ⚽, Werton (A),
41', Tavares H. 🟨,
43', Paulinho 🟨,
45+4', Andre 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Maviram E. ↓, Moudjatovic M. ↑,
57', Jean Felipe 🟨,
66', Paulinho ↓, Fabinho ↑,
66', Rafael Martins ↓, Mozino ↑,
69', Moudjatovic M. 🟨,
70', Tavares H. ↓, Manso T. ↑,
70', Costinha ↓, Miro ↑,
70', Ramos R. ↓, Talocha ↑,
75', Simaozinho ↓, Henrique Gelain ↑,
76', Figueira Daniel 🟨,
83', Andre ↓, Ndo R. ↑,
83', Mozino ↓, Rafael ↑,
87', Bebeto ↓, Cunha N. ↑,
90+6', Fangueiro C. 🟨,
90+7', 1 - 1, Miro ⚽, Cicero (A),
90+7', Miro 🟨,
90+10', Ndo R. 🟨,
90+13', 2 - 1, Roberto (Pen),
90+13', Ndo R. 🟨,

Preview

One of the most exciting matches of the day will feature two top-of-the-table teams (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Portugal (Promotion: ) and 4).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Tondela won 2.

Right away both teams are in a satisfying form.

Leixões could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 15 head-to-head matches Tondela won 3 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 18:22 (average 1.2:1.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Tondela won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 10:10 (average 1.4:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Tondela
Portuguese Liga 2
04.10.24	Torreense - Tondela	0:2 ✺
28.09.24	Tondela - Académico de Viseu	4:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
22.09.24	Os Marialvas - Tondela	2:1 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
15.09.24	Mafra - Tondela	0:4 ✺
31.08.24	Tondela - Felgueiras	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 WWLWT
- Leixões SC
Portuguese Liga 2
05.10.24	Leixões - Portimonense	3:0 ✺
29.09.24	Alverca - Leixões	1:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
22.09.24	Guarda FC - Leixões	0:1 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
15.09.24	Leixões - Vizela	0:1 ✺
31.08.24	Oliveirense - Leixões	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
03.03.24	Leixões - Tondela	1:1
07.10.23	Tondela - Leixões	4:2
08.04.23	Tondela - Leixões	2:3
24.10.22	Leixões - Tondela	1:1
Taça de Portugal
22.11.21	Tondela - Leixões	3:1
18.12.18	Leixões - Tondela	3:2 penalties
15.10.17	Leixões - Tondela	3:2 ET

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