Match Info

MLS

Date: 29 August 2026, Saturday

Location: BMO Field (Toronto, ON)

Referee: Badawi M. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Germany	Laola1
Usa	MLS Season Pass, SportsEngine Play
World	Apple TV International


	Toronto FC		New York City

	1	X	2
	2.57	3.50	2.57	Watch
	2.45	3.50	2.60
	2.48	3.50	2.63
	2.57	3.70	2.73
	2.5	3.69	2.62	Watch
	2.50	3.55	2.70
	2.55	3.76	2.69	Watch
	2.55	3.50	2.60
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.52 ↑ (2.33)	3.59 ↑ (3.5)	2.64 ↓ (2.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toronto FC
37.6%

Draw
26.5%

New York City
35.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40%

26.7%

33.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41%

26%

32.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toronto FC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

New York City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toronto FC than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for New York City than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	33.3%	16.7%

Toronto FC - New York City Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Toronto will win (votes: 3 - 50%). NY City will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Toronto (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.75 - over (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gavran L. (G) 19. Franklin K. 25. Zimmerman W. 13. Kuscevic B. 22. Laryea R. (C) 71. Cimermancic M. 14. Coello A. 11. Etienne D. 10. Mihailovic D. 7. Corbeanu T. 9. Sargent J.	49. Freese M. (G) 35. Ilenic M. 13. Thiago Martins (C) 6. Sands J. 2. Cavallo N. 55. Parks K. 7. Mercau N. 8. Perea A. 26. Ojeda A. 20. Luighi 9. Traore B.
Substitutes
17. Aristizabal E. 44. Edwards R. 38. Gilman J. 15. Gomis N. 3. Matheus Pereira 12. Monlouis Z. 20. Salloi D. 99. Vilsaint J. 23. Yarbrough W. (G)	27. Flax C. 24. Gray T. 88. Jones M. 23. Murray M. 22. O'Toole K. 18. Ranjitsingh G. (G) 34. Raul Gustavo 30. Romero T. (G) 32. Shore J.
Coaches
Fraser R.	Jansen P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
18', Kuscevic B. 🟨,
29', 0 - 1, Mercau N. ⚽, Ojeda A. (A),
40', Mercau N. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
54', Perea A. 🟨,
55', Etienne D. ↓, Salloi D. ↑,
55', Franklin K. ↓, Matheus Pereira ↑,
59', Mihailovic D. 🟨,
63', Traore B. ↓, Raul Gustavo ↑,
63', Cavallo N. ↓, O'Toole K. ↑,
64', Matheus Pereira 🟨,
70', 1 - 1, Salloi D. ⚽, Corbeanu T. (A),
75', Thiago Martins ↓, Jones M. ↑,
77', Parks K. ↓, Shore J. ↑,
90+1', Shore J. 🟨,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 10 and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toronto won 0.

Recent performances by Toronto have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

NY City is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toronto won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 27:36. (average 1.4:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Toronto won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 15:14. (average 1.5:1.4).

Last Results with these Odds

New York City - the odds 2.8 are the expected chance of winning is 33.31%, but this team recently wins 55% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Toronto FC
MLS
22.08.26	Inter Miami - Toronto FC	1:2 ✺
19.08.26	Toronto FC - Charlotte	3:3 ✺
15.08.26	Toronto FC - New England Revolution	2:1 ✺
31.07.26	New York City - Toronto FC	1:1 ✺
25.07.26	DC United - Toronto FC	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.7 WTWTL
- New York City FC
MLS
23.08.26	New England Revolution - New York City	1:1 ✺
19.08.26	Cincinnati - New York City	2:1 ✺
16.08.26	New York City - Philadelphia Union	2:3 ✺
CONCACAF League Cup
13.08.26	New York City - Necaxa	1:2 ✺
06.08.26	New York City - Santos Laguna	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 TLLLW

Latest Head to Head

MLS
31.07.26	New York City - Toronto FC	1:1
03.07.25	New York City - Toronto FC	3:1
26.04.25	Toronto FC - New York City	0:1
11.05.24	Toronto FC - New York City	2:3
16.03.24	New York City - Toronto FC	2:1
24.09.23	New York City - Toronto FC	3:0
CONCACAF League Cup
26.07.23	New York City - Toronto FC	5:0

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