Match Info

MLS

Date: 10 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Yankee Stadium (New York, NY)

Referee: Penso C. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	RDS App, RDS, TSN 5
Usa	MLS Season Pass


	New York City		CF Montréal

	1	X	2
	2	3.5	3.6	Watch
	1.75	3.7	4.33
	2	3.75	3.6	Watch
	2.04	3.75	3.66
	1.99	3.7	3.61	Watch
	1.75	3.6	4.4
	1.98	3.7	3.62	Watch
	2	3.75	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.94 ↑ (1.76)	3.68 ↑ (3.64)	3.8 ↓ (4.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

New York City
49.1%

Draw
25.9%

CF Montréal
25%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.2%

26.2%

19.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.9%

26.1%

19.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

New York City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that New York City's form might have worsened.

CF Montréal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting CF Montréal's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for New York City than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for CF Montréal than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for CF Montréal, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
76.9%	0%	23.1%

New York City - CF Montréal Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - NY City (1.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: New York City will win (10 of 12 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.24% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): New York City will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. NY City (votes: 4 - 80%). Montreal (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
49. Freese M. (G) 24. Gray T. 80. Haak J. 13. Thiago Martins (C) 2. Cavallo N. 21. O'Neill A. 32. Shore J. 10. Moralez M. 11. Fernandez J. 16. Martinez A. 8. Perea A.	40. Sirois J. (G) 27. Bugaj D. 16. Waterman J. 2. Neal J. 13. Petrasso L. 25. Sealy D. 6. Piette S. (C) 19. Saliba N. 21. Herbers F. 17. Vrioni G. 9. Owusu P.
Substitutes
38. Baiera A. 9. Bakrar M. 29. Carrizo M. 35. Ilenic M. 23. Murray M. 26. Ojeda A. 30. Romero T. (G) 19. Tanasijevic S. 17. Wolf H.	4. Alvarez F. 1. Breza S. (G) 23. Clark C. 5. Craig B. 35. Graham-Roache O. 14. Ibrahim S. 22. Loturi V. 7. Opoku K. 3. Pearce T.
Coaches
Jansen P.	Donadel M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
39', Piette S. 🟨,
44', Haak J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Gray T. ↓, Ilenic M. ↑,
46', Perea A. ↓, Ojeda A. ↑,
46', Piette S. ↓, Loturi V. ↑,
48', 0 - 1, Owusu P. ⚽,
59', Vrioni G. ↓, Clark C. ↑,
62', O'Neill A. ↓, Tanasijevic S. ↑,
62', Fernandez J. ↓, Wolf H. ↑,
73', Cavallo N. ↓, Bakrar M. ↑,
80', Neal J. ↓, Pearce T. ↑,
81', Herbers F. ↓, Craig B. ↑,
85', Owusu P. ↓, Graham-Roache O. ↑,
87', Waterman J. 🟨,
90', Ilenic M. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, NY City won 4.

Recent performances by NY City have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Montreal's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Montreal may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, NY City is a strong favorite.

There will not play in NY City: Jones M. (Broken Leg)

There will not play in Montreal: Duke B. (Lower-Body Injury) Synchuk G. (Lower-Body Injury)

There are questionable in NY City: Garfield Reid S. (Injury) Ilenic M. (Leg Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, NY City won 12 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 32:14. (average 1.6:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, NY City won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 20:7. (average 1.8:0.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- New York City FC
US Open Cup
07.05.25	Pittsburgh Riverhounds - New York City	1:0 ✺
MLS
04.05.25	New York City - Cincinnati	1:0 ✺
26.04.25	Toronto FC - New York City	0:1 ✺
19.04.25	New England Revolution - New York City	2:0 ✺
12.04.25	New York City - Philadelphia Union	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 LWWLW
- CF Montréal
MLS
03.05.25	CF Montréal - Philadelphia Union	1:2 ✺
Canadian Championship
30.04.25	Toronto FC - CF Montréal	2:3 penalties ✺
MLS
26.04.25	New York Red Bulls - CF Montréal	1:0 ✺
19.04.25	CF Montréal - Orlando City	0:0 ✺
12.04.25	CF Montréal - Charlotte	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 LWLTL

Latest Head to Head

MLS
19.10.24	CF Montréal - New York City	2:0
03.07.24	New York City - CF Montréal	2:0
30.08.23	New York City - CF Montréal	2:0
01.07.23	CF Montréal - New York City	0:1
23.10.22	CF Montréal - New York City	1:3
30.07.22	CF Montréal - New York City	0:0
12.03.22	New York City - CF Montréal	4:1

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