Match Info

National League South - Round 45

Date: 18 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Plainmoor (Torquay)


	Torquay United		Hemel Hempstead Town

	1	X	2
	1.58	3.95	4.75
	1.66	4.03	4.77
	1.6	4.22	4.84	Watch
	1.62	3.8	4.8
	1.57	3.85	4.92
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.61 ↓ (1.72)	3.97 ↑ (3.91)	4.82 ↑ (4.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Torquay United
57.5%

Draw
23.3%

Hemel Hempstead Town
19.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54%

23.7%

22.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.7%

22.6%

21.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Torquay United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

Hemel Hempstead Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Torquay United than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hemel Hempstead Town than the current prediction. (+2%)

Torquay United - Hemel Hempstead Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
9', 0 - 1, Campbell R. ⚽,
35', 1 - 1, Moore D. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
52', 1 - 2, Vilhete M. ⚽,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ National League South (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ National League South (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Torquay won 3.

Torquay has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Hemel Hempstead has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Torquay is considered a favorite.

We predict that Torquay will win today's game, with odds of 1.62.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Torquay won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 19:9. (average 2.4:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Torquay won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:2. (average 2:0.7).

Outrights of English National League South for now

Torquay: 14.21% Hemel Hempstead: 2.3%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Hemel Hempstead	10	3	4	3	10:10	0	13
13	Torquay	10	3	4	3	13:14	-1	13

Last Results with these Odds

Torquay United - the odds 1.72 are the expected chance of winning is 53.98%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Torquay United
English National League South
11.04.26	Slough Town - Torquay United	1:5 ✺
06.04.26	Torquay United - Bath City	4:1 ✺
03.04.26	Weston-super-Mare - Torquay United	0:3 ✺
28.03.26	Torquay United - Horsham	2:0 ✺
24.03.26	Torquay United - Dorking Wanderers	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 WWWWT
- Hemel Hempstead Town
English National League South
11.04.26	Hemel Hempstead Town - Eastbourne Borough	3:1 ✺
06.04.26	Enfield Town - Hemel Hempstead Town	0:0 ✺
03.04.26	Hemel Hempstead Town - Chesham United	0:3 ✺
31.03.26	Weston-super-Mare - Hemel Hempstead Town	0:0 ✺
28.03.26	Dorking Wanderers - Hemel Hempstead Town	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 WTLTL

Latest Head to Head

English National League South
30.08.25	Hemel Hempstead Town - Torquay United	2:1
26.04.25	Hemel Hempstead Town - Torquay United	1:4
21.12.24	Torquay United - Hemel Hempstead Town	1:0
16.12.23	Torquay United - Hemel Hempstead Town	3:2
23.09.23	Hemel Hempstead Town - Torquay United	3:2
12.02.19	Hemel Hempstead Town - Torquay United	1:4
01.09.18	Torquay United - Hemel Hempstead Town	2:0

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