Match Info

National League South - Round 41

Date: 28 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Plainmoor (Torquay)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DAZN
Bolivia	DAZN
Ecuador	DAZN
Paraguay	DAZN
Uruguay	DAZN
Venezuela	DAZN


	Torquay United		Horsham

	1	X	2
	1.72	3.7	4.15
	1.78	3.73	4.25
	1.76	3.8	4.18	Watch
	1.75	3.5	4.2
	1.71	3.58	4.27
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↑ (1.65)	3.66 ↓ (4.02)	4.21 ↓ (4.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Torquay United
52.9%

Draw
25.2%

Horsham
21.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.2%

23.1%

20.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.1%

22.3%

20%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Torquay United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

Horsham has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Torquay United than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Torquay United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Horsham than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Torquay United - Horsham Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
8', 1 - 0, Morgan D. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
68', 2 - 0, Lo-Everton S. ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ National League South (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 15).

Torquay has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Horsham is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Torquay may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Torquay is the team to beat.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Torquay won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Including home match between the teams, Torquay won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Outrights of English National League South for now

Torquay: 14.21% Horsham FC: 1.91%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Torquay	10	3	4	3	13:14	-1	13
17	Horsham FC	9	2	5	2	9:10	-1	11

Last Results with these Odds

Torquay United - the odds 1.65 are the expected chance of winning is 56.25%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Torquay United
English National League South
24.03.26	Torquay United - Dorking Wanderers	2:2 ✺
21.03.26	Dagenham & Redbridge - Torquay United	1:0 ✺
14.03.26	Torquay United - Chesham United	2:1 ✺
10.03.26	Torquay United - Salisbury	2:1 ✺
07.03.26	Ebbsfleet United - Torquay United	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 TLWWL
- Horsham FC
English National League South
21.03.26	Hampton & Richmond Borough - Horsham	2:0 ✺
17.03.26	Horsham - Bath City	2:1 ✺
14.03.26	Horsham - Tonbridge Angels	0:1 ✺
10.03.26	Horsham - Hornchurch	0:2 ✺
07.03.26	Totton - Horsham	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

English National League South
23.08.25	Horsham - Torquay United	2:1
English FA Trophy
10.12.24	Torquay United - Horsham	2:0

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