Match Info

League Two - Round 23

Date: 29 December 2025, Monday

Location: Prenton Park (Birkenhead)

Referee: Swallow E. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Tranmere Rovers		Barrow

	1	X	2
	1.96	3.3	3.7
	1.98	3.45	3.55
	1.99	3.51	3.55	Watch
	2.05	3.3	3.4
	2.06	3.3	3.51	Watch
	2	3.5	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.01 ↓ (2.1)	3.39 ↑ (3.2)	3.55 ↑ (3.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tranmere Rovers
46.4%

Draw
27.4%

Barrow
26.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.4%

28.5%

28.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.9%

24.9%

32.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tranmere Rovers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

Barrow has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tranmere Rovers than the current prediction. (-8.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tranmere Rovers that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barrow than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Barrow could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	8.3%	16.7%

Tranmere Rovers - Barrow Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Tranmere will win (votes: 9 - 75%). Barrow will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 8.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Tranmere: 50.5% – 99.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Tranmere (votes: 3 - 60%). Barrow (votes: 1 - 20%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Murphy J. (G) 14. Joseph J. 2. Norman C. 3. Brough P. 4. Turnbull J. 5. Smith N. 7. Whitaker C. 8. Finley S. 24. Blacker B. 18. Jennings C. 25. Harris T.	31. Winterbottom B. (G) 4. Williams M. 6. Canavan N. (C) 5. Raglan C. 7. Jackson B. 45. Harper R. 14. McCann C. 34. Whitfield B. 8. Smith S. 20. Fletcher I. 25. Gordon J.
Substitutes
12. Barrett J. (G) 23. Bristow E. 10. Davison J. 9. Dennis K. 29. Ironside J. 42. Kenneh N. 6. Smallwood R.	18. Cameron I. 21. Earing J. 23. Mahoney C. 3. Shipley L. 1. Stanway W. (G) 27. Worrall D.
Coaches
Crosby A.	McDonald N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
4', Canavan N. 🟨,
8', 0 - 1, Jackson B. ⚽, Fletcher I. (A),
18', 0 - 2, Raglan C. ⚽,
32', 0 - 3, Fletcher I. ⚽,
36', Harper R. 🟨,
40', Turnbull J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
50', 1 - 3, Brough P. ⚽, Turnbull J. (A),
57', Turnbull J. ↓, Ironside J. ↑,
57', Brough P. ↓, Bristow E. ↑,
57', Norman C. ↓, Dennis K. ↑,
58', Gordon J. ↓, Cameron I. ↑,
64', Canavan N. 🟨,
66', Fletcher I. ↓, Shipley L. ↑,
77', Winterbottom B. ↓, Stanway W. ↑,
78', Blacker B. ↓, Davison J. ↑,
84', Smith N. 🟨,
90+7', Smith S. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 14 and 19).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tranmere won 2.

Recent performances by Tranmere have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Barrow has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Tranmere will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Tranmere: Lowe J. (Inactive) McGee L. (Hip Injury) O'Connor L. (Inactive) Patrick O. (Inactive) Williams J. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Barrow: Foley S. (Surgery) Healey R. (Knee Injury) Smith K. (Ankle Injury) Walker T. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Tranmere won 10 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 30:18. (average 1.5:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Tranmere won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 14:5. (average 1.6:0.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tranmere Rovers
English League Two
26.12.25	Tranmere Rovers - Fleetwood Town	1:0 ✺
20.12.25	Oldham Athletic - Tranmere Rovers	3:1 ✺
13.12.25	Tranmere Rovers - Crewe Alexandra	1:4 ✺
09.12.25	Barrow - Tranmere Rovers	0:3 ✺
English EFL Trophy
02.12.25	Tranmere Rovers - Fleetwood Town	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WLLWL
- Barrow
English League Two
26.12.25	Accrington Stanley - Barrow	2:1 ✺
19.12.25	Barrow - Cheltenham Town	1:2 ✺
13.12.25	Gillingham - Barrow	2:2 ✺
09.12.25	Barrow - Tranmere Rovers	0:3 ✺
English FA Cup
06.12.25	Wigan Athletic - Barrow	3:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LLTLL

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
09.12.25	Barrow - Tranmere Rovers	0:3
English EFL Trophy
07.10.25	Barrow - Tranmere Rovers	1:2
English League Two
21.04.25	Barrow - Tranmere Rovers	0:0
29.12.24	Tranmere Rovers - Barrow	1:1
06.01.24	Barrow - Tranmere Rovers	1:0
05.08.23	Tranmere Rovers - Barrow	1:2
29.12.22	Barrow - Tranmere Rovers	1:2

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