Match Info

Campionato Sammarinese - Round 16

Date: 28 January 2026, Wednesday


	Tre Fiori		Cosmos

	1	X	2
	1.43	3.9	6.5
	1.45	3.7	6.7	Watch
	1.32	4.24	7.91
	1.32	4.77	8.49	Watch
	1.29	4.4	10
	1.28	4.3	11.4
	1.33	4.25	8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.35 ↓ (1.66)	4.22 ↑ (3.6)	8.43 ↑ (4.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tre Fiori
67.6%

Draw
21.6%

Cosmos
10.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.2%

25.5%

19.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.1%

24.2%

18.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tre Fiori has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Tre Fiori's performance.

Cosmos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Cosmos might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tre Fiori than the current prediction. (-9.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tre Fiori that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cosmos than the current prediction. (+7.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Cosmos could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Tre Fiori - Cosmos Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
45', 1 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
53', 1 - 2, ⚽,
60', 1 - 3, ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: ) and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Campionato Sammarinese (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tre Fiori won 3.

Tre Fiori is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Cosmos has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Tre Fiori is seen as the favorite.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Tre Fiori won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 22:11. (average 2:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Tre Fiori won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:5. (average 1.5:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Tre Fiori	4	3	0	1	14:5	9	9
5	Cosmos	4	2	1	1	9:4	5	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SP Tre Fiori
San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
24.01.26	Juvenes-Dogana - Tre Fiori	0:2 ✺
21.01.26	San Giovanni - Tre Fiori	0:4 ✺
San Marino Super Cup
23.12.25	Virtus - Tre Fiori	1:0 ✺
San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
20.12.25	Tre Fiori - Faetano	3:0 ✺
13.12.25	AC Libertas - Tre Fiori	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WWLWW
- SS Cosmos
San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
25.01.26	Domagnano - Cosmos	0:3 ✺
21.01.26	Cosmos - Juvenes-Dogana	0:1 ✺
21.12.25	Cosmos - La Fiorita	0:1 ✺
14.12.25	Pennarossa - Cosmos	1:1 ✺
06.12.25	Cosmos - Folgore	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 WLLTW

Latest Head to Head

San Marino Coppa Titano
26.11.25	Cosmos - Tre Fiori	0:4
San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
30.08.25	Cosmos - Tre Fiori	0:1
06.04.25	Tre Fiori - Cosmos	1:3
20.02.24	Cosmos - Tre Fiori	1:1
29.10.23	Tre Fiori - Cosmos	5:0
23.04.23	Tre Fiori - Cosmos	0:2
15.01.23	Cosmos - Tre Fiori	1:1

Tre Fiori - Cosmos: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide