Match Info

Division 1 - Round 25

Date: 31 July 2026, Friday

Location: Markets Field (Limerick)

Where to Watch on TV:


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World	LOI TV


	Treaty United		Longford Town

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.10	2.65
	2.38	3.20	2.60
	2.60	3.35	2.98
	2.41	3.25	2.75	Watch
	2.55	3.00	2.95
	2.44	3.30	2.80
	2.38	3.00	2.70
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.44 ↑ (2.34)	3.17 ↓ (3.19)	2.78 ↓ (2.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Treaty United
37.7%

Draw
29.1%

Longford Town
33.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.3%

28.8%

31.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.2%

28.9%

32%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Treaty United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Longford Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Treaty United than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Longford Town than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	100%	0%

Treaty United - Longford Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Brady J. (G) 44. Cantwell K. 29. Foley K. 27. Lynch R. 3. Lynch B. 11. Byrne M. 8. Conroy C. 31. Manning R. 30. Murphy M. 37. Kareem D. 9. Curtis C.	1. Moore K. (G) 4. McKenna D. 5. McCarthy T. 12. Omorehiomwan C. 21. Hough J. 8. Manuel P. 20. O'Brien A. (C) 28. Moore S. 23. Paraschiv A. 14. Williams D. 15. Murtagh D.
Substitutes
19. Cunningham B. 21. Fitzpatrick K. (G) 6. Healy S. 28. Jones M. 10. Lawlor R. 98. Regan B. . Rochford J. 25. Walsh M. 16. Yoro E.	16. Bailey J. 18. Brady S. . Brunton K. 3. Byrne A. 27. Cioch A. 24. Dawson R. 11. Harris M. 9. Ugbesia S. 25. Woodcock L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
25', 0 - 1, Murtagh D. ⚽,
27', McKenna D. 🟨,
34', Cantwell K. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
49', Manuel P. 🟨,
55', Manning R. ↓, Lawlor R. ↑,
56', Conroy C. 🟨,
72', Paraschiv A. ↓, Harris M. ↑,
73', Williams D. ↓, Ugbesia S. ↑,
73', Byrne M. ↓, Yoro E. ↑,
73', Conroy C. ↓, Healy S. ↑,
84', Murphy M. ↓, Cunningham B. ↑,
86', Manuel P. ↓, Brady S. ↑,
90+6', Murtagh D. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Treaty United won 1.

Treaty United is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Longford has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Treaty United won 8 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 31:22. (average 1.7:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Treaty United won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 18:9. (average 2:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Longford	34	13	9	12	47:45	2	48
9	Treaty United	34	9	9	16	33:52	-19	36

Last Results with these Odds

Treaty United - the odds 2.34 are the expected chance of winning is 39.34%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Longford Town - the odds 2.88 are the expected chance of winning is 31.87%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Treaty United
Irish Division 1
24.07.26	Treaty United - Athlone Town	2:1 ✺
Irish FAI Cup
17.07.26	Treaty United - University College Dublin	1:2 ✺
Irish Division 1
10.07.26	Finn Harps - Treaty United	0:1 ✺
03.07.26	Treaty United - Kerry	2:1 ✺
26.06.26	Wexford - Treaty United	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.8 WLWWT
- Longford Town
Irish Division 1
25.07.26	Longford Town - Wexford	1:2 ✺
Irish FAI Cup
18.07.26	Baldoyle United - Longford Town	0:8 ✺
Irish Division 1
10.07.26	Cork City - Longford Town	3:4 ✺
04.07.26	Longford Town - University College Dublin	2:1 ✺
26.06.26	Kerry - Longford Town	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.6 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Irish Division 1
29.05.26	Longford Town - Treaty United	3:1
03.04.26	Treaty United - Longford Town	0:0
05.10.25	Treaty United - Longford Town	1:2
09.08.25	Longford Town - Treaty United	2:0
23.05.25	Treaty United - Longford Town	5:1
29.03.25	Longford Town - Treaty United	2:0
27.09.24	Treaty United - Longford Town	3:1

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