The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Longford Town 32.7%
Draw 27.8%
University College Dublin 39.5%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
35.5%
26.2%
38.3%
Our Initial ML Estimation
36.1%
25.8%
37.7%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Longford Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)
University College Dublin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Longford Town than the current prediction. (+3.4%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for University College Dublin than the current prediction. (-1.8%)
Longford Town - University College Dublin Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Moore K. (G) 8. Manuel P. 5. McCarthy T. 12. Omorehiomwan C. 21. Hough J. 28. Moore S. 20. O'Brien A. 6. Adenekan S. 10. Doran A. 16. Bailey J. 15. Murtagh D.
1. Kavanagh D. (G) 2. Murphy S. 5. Lennox C. 14. Curtis H. 3. Cailloce L. 8. Dignam L. 13. Goad J. 7. McCullagh M. 10. Behan C. 15. Akinrintayo C. 11. Smith H.
Substitutes
18. Brady S. 27. Brunton K. 26. Egan J. 7. George D. 11. Harris M. 4. McKenna D. 23. Paraschiv A. 9. Ugbesia S. 25. Woodcock L.
12. Alonge M. 26. Costello D. 16. Douglas N. (G) 23. McBrearty R. 31. Mohan S. 22. Morley T. 24. Norval S. 21. Ogbonna G. 27. Sheeran E.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 1)
27', 0 - 1, Dignam L. ⚽,
29', Bailey J. 🟨,
34', Hough J. 🟨,
36', Kavanagh D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
52', Manuel P. 🟨,
71', Akinrintayo C. ↓, Norval S. ↑,
75', Manuel P. ↓, Paraschiv A. ↑,
76', Doran A. ↓, George D. ↑,
76', Bailey J. ↓, Ugbesia S. ↑,
77', 0 - 2, Smith H. ⚽,
82', McCullagh M. ↓, Mohan S. ↑,
83', Goad J. ↓, Morley T. ↑,
87', O'Brien A. ↓, McKenna D. ↑,
87', Moore S. ↓, Harris M. ↑,
90', Murphy S. ↓, Sheeran E. ↑,
90+1', Norval S. 🟨,
Preview
First leg.
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Longford won 1.
Longford is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 3 wins).
Performances by UCD have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).
The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.
In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Longford has recorded 4 wins, 6 draws, and 10 losses, with a goal aggregate of 24:29 (averaging 1.2:1.5 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Longford against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, with 9:13 goals (averaging 1:1.4 per game).
International
Watch
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Moore K. (G) 
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