Match Info

Division 1 - Round 21

Date: 26 June 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Mounthawk Park (Tralee) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
International	18:45	LOI TV


	Kerry		Longford Town

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.10	2.95
	2.22	3.25	2.98
	2.27	3.39	3.13
	2.2	3.3	3.04	Watch
	2.19	3.3	3
	2.19	3.2	3.03
	2.18	3.15	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.2 ↓ (2.21)	3.24 ↓ (3.31)	3 ↓ (3.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kerry
41.5%

Draw
28.2%

Longford Town
30.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

41.6%

27.8%

30.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43%

26.9%

29.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kerry has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Longford Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kerry than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Longford Town than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	25%	25%

Kerry - Longford Town Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Kerry will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Longford will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Connor M. (G) 18. Aladesanusi S. 14. Hakkinen J. 28. Brookwell N. (C) 17. Brosnan C. 29. Lee E. 24. Borden V. 23. Perez R. 3. O'Connell S. 11. Okwute D. 10. Murphy C.	25. Odum C. (G) 18. Irhue O. 5. McCarthy T. 26. Egan J. (C) 8. Manuel P. 28. Moore S. 6. Adenekan S. 23. Paraschiv A. 21. Hough J. 14. Williams D. 15. Murtagh D.
Substitutes
41. Bargary C. 19. Bermingham B. 35. Healy A. 15. Koufie E. 40. Mangan H. (G) 37. McCormack C. 7. McGrath S. 21. Palmer L.	17. Canavan M. 27. Cioch A. 19. Donohue J. 1. Moore K. (G) 16. Ndebumadu K. 20. O'Brien A. 12. Omorehiomwan C. 9. Ugbesia S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 1)
58', Brosnan C. ↓, Palmer L. ↑,
67', Perez R. ↓, Bargary C. ↑,
80', 1 - 0, Murphy C. ⚽,
83', 1 - 1, Paraschiv A. ⚽,
87', 2 - 1, Borden V. ⚽,
88', Okwute D. ↓, Healy A. ↑,
89', Adenekan S. ↓, Canavan M. ↑,
90', Manuel P. ↓, Ugbesia S. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kerry won 2.

Kerry is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Longford has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Kerry will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Kerry won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 18:20. (average 1.3:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Kerry won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:5. (average 1.6:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kerry FC Ireland
Irish Division 1
19.06.26	University College Dublin - Kerry	0:1 ✺
12.06.26	Kerry - Athlone Town	1:0 ✺
29.05.26	Cobh Ramblers - Kerry	2:0 ✺
22.05.26	Kerry - Bray Wanderers	2:2 ✺
15.05.26	Kerry - Wexford	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.6 WWLTW
- Longford Town
Irish Division 1
19.06.26	Bray Wanderers - Longford Town	5:2 ✺
13.06.26	Longford Town - Cobh Ramblers	2:1 ✺
29.05.26	Longford Town - Treaty United	3:1 ✺
22.05.26	Finn Harps - Longford Town	2:2 ✺
16.05.26	Longford Town - Cork City	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 LWWTL

Latest Head to Head

Irish Division 1
25.04.26	Longford Town - Kerry	1:0
27.02.26	Kerry - Longford Town	1:1
22.08.25	Kerry - Longford Town	1:0
12.07.25	Longford Town - Kerry	3:1
30.05.25	Kerry - Longford Town	2:0
15.03.25	Longford Town - Kerry	3:2
24.08.24	Longford Town - Kerry	2:2

Kerry - Longford Town