Match Info

Division 1 - Round 23

Date: 10 July 2026, Friday

Location: Finn Park (Ballybofey)

Where to Watch on TV:


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World	LOI TV


	Finn Harps		Treaty United

	1	X	2
	2.40	3.25	2.50
	2.58	3.35	2.48
	2.65	3.67	2.67
	2.47	3.49	2.52	Watch
	2.4	3.55	2.6
	2.42	3.34	2.52
	2.5	3.25	2.43
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.49 ↓ (2.5)	3.41 ↑ (3.38)	2.53 ↑ (2.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Finn Harps
36.9%

Draw
26.9%

Treaty United
36.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.7%

27.1%

36.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.2%

26%

34.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Finn Harps has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Treaty United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Finn Harps than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Treaty United than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	25%	50%

Finn Harps - Treaty United Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Finn Harps will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Treaty United will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Lorenzo (G) 2. Cullen J. 4. Tourish C. 33. Fanle A. 5. Brogan O. 6. Bradley-Walsh J. 10. McNamee T. 7. Benny 8. Hutchison M. 29. Lumingo N. 14. Coyle D.	1. Brady J. (G) 9. Curtis C. 20. Nwankwo D. 27. Lynch R. 23. Doherty F. 15. Feeney B. 6. Healy S. 8. Conroy C. 29. Foley K. 18. Oyenuga J. 30. Murphy M.
Substitutes
16. Bosakani B. 44. Bradley S. 42. Crossan A. 41. Doherty L. 17. McGranaghan C. 77. McHugh O. 28. McLaughlin A. 1. Sheridan C. (G) 43. Tavares G.	11. Byrne M. 19. Cunningham B. 21. Fitzpatrick K. (G) 10. Lawlor R. 14. Lee B. 3. Lynch B. 31. Manning R. 36. Whelan C. 16. Yoro E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
35', 0 - 1, Conroy C. ⚽,
45', 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
81', 🟨,
82', 🟨,
83', 🟨,
90+3', Bradley S. 🟥,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Finn Harps won 2.

Finn Harps is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Treaty United's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Finn Harps won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 15:16. (average 1:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Finn Harps won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:7. (average 1:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Treaty United	34	9	9	16	33:52	-19	36
10	Finn Harps	34	6	7	21	31:68	-37	25

Last Results with these Odds

Treaty United - the odds 2.52 are the expected chance of winning is 36.27%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Finn Harps
Irish Division 1
03.07.26	Finn Harps - Wexford	1:0 ✺
26.06.26	Athlone Town - Finn Harps	1:1 ✺
19.06.26	Cobh Ramblers - Finn Harps	3:1 ✺
12.06.26	Finn Harps - University College Dublin	0:5 ✺
29.05.26	Cork City - Finn Harps	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 WTLLL
- Treaty United
Irish Division 1
03.07.26	Treaty United - Kerry	2:1 ✺
26.06.26	Wexford - Treaty United	0:0 ✺
19.06.26	Cork City - Treaty United	4:0 ✺
12.06.26	Treaty United - Bray Wanderers	2:2 ✺
29.05.26	Longford Town - Treaty United	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 WTLTL

Latest Head to Head

Irish Division 1
15.05.26	Treaty United - Finn Harps	3:0
13.03.26	Finn Harps - Treaty United	2:2
29.08.25	Finn Harps - Treaty United	1:0
27.06.25	Treaty United - Finn Harps	0:1
02.05.25	Finn Harps - Treaty United	0:2
28.02.25	Treaty United - Finn Harps	3:1
18.10.24	Finn Harps - Treaty United	1:2

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