Match Info

Liga 3 - Relegation Group - Round 3

Date: 1 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Parque Municipal dos Desportos de Fafe (Fafe)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Fafe		Sanjoanense

	1	X	2
	1.41	4.15	6.3
	1.41	4.45	7.96
	1.43	4.46	6.77	Watch
	1.4	4	7
	1.52	4.19	5.77
	1.48	4	6.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.44 ↑ (1.38)	4.21 ↓ (4.35)	6.72 ↓ (7.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fafe
64.2%

Draw
22%

Sanjoanense
13.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.3%

21%

12.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.8%

14.5%

18.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fafe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Sanjoanense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fafe than the current prediction. (-18.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Fafe that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sanjoanense than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

Fafe - Sanjoanense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
64. Martins T. (G) 26. Batista J. 8. Braga V. 35. Cardoso F. (C) 77. Carlos Daniel 85. Castro D. 11. Picas 60. Ribeiro Oliveira J. 9. Santos J. 4. Teixeira L. 13. Vigario J.	1. Monteiro J. (G) 25. Couto J. 16. Gomes V. 27. John K. 24. Maio F. 2. Martins J. 13. Pinheiro Edu 8. Podstawski T. 6. Serra A. 30. Talles Wander 12. Vitinha (C)
Substitutes
20. Amorim J. 15. Breno 95. Fonseca T. 71. Joao Goncalo (G) 10. Ka 78. Pinto G. 79. Teixeira T. 7. Veiga T. 5. Ze Oliveira	20. Andrezinho 19. Cezar F. 36. Duarte A. (G) 21. Gomes R. 10. Kiko Felix 3. Nando 7. Rocha T. 33. Sa G. 5. Santos R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
6', 0 - 1, Vitinha ⚽,
18', 1 - 1, Carlos Daniel (Penalty Awarded),
24', Teixeira L. 🟨,
32', 1 - 2, Talles Wander ⚽,
41', Monteiro J. 🟨,
42', Cardoso F. ↓, Veiga T. ↑,
44', Braga V. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
51', Podstawski T. ↓, Nando ↑,
59', Ribeiro Oliveira J. ↓, Pinto G. ↑,
59', Braga V. ↓, Fonseca T. ↑,
67', Martins J. 🟨,
67', Castro D. 🟨,
71', Gomes V. ↓, Andrezinho ↑,
71', Couto J. ↓, Rocha T. ↑,
72', 2 - 2, Santos J. ⚽,
77', Talles Wander 🟨,
82', Castro D. ↓, Ze Oliveira ↑,
82', Santos J. ↓, Teixeira T. ↑,
86', Maio F. ↓, Santos R. ↑,
86', Pinheiro Edu ↓, Cezar F. ↑,
90+6', 3 - 2, Teixeira T. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fafe won 1.

Recent performances by Fafe have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Sanjoanense has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Sanjoanense may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Fafe is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Fafe won 1 match, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 10:23. (average 0.8:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Fafe won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 4:10. (average 0.7:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Fafe
Portuguese Liga 3
21.02.26	São João de Ver - Fafe	1:0 ✺
15.02.26	Fafe - Braga B	2:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
04.02.26	Fafe - Torreense	1:1 ✺
Portuguese Liga 3
25.01.26	Fafe - Braga B	2:2 ✺
18.01.26	Vitoria Guimarães B - Fafe	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LWTTL
- AD Sanjoanense
Portuguese Liga 3
22.02.26	Paredes - Sanjoanense	3:1 ✺
14.02.26	Sanjoanense - São João de Ver	1:1 ✺
25.01.26	Sanjoanense - Vitoria Guimarães B	2:3 ✺
17.01.26	Varzim - Sanjoanense	2:0 ✺
10.01.26	Sanjoanense - Trofense	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
09.11.25	Sanjoanense - Fafe	1:1
10.08.25	Fafe - Sanjoanense	0:2
30.11.24	Sanjoanense - Fafe	0:1
17.08.24	Fafe - Sanjoanense	1:1
30.03.24	Sanjoanense - Fafe	4:2
09.03.24	Fafe - Sanjoanense	0:2
10.12.23	Fafe - Sanjoanense	1:1

Fafe - Sanjoanense: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide