Match Info

Liga 3 - Relegation Group - Round 5

Date: 15 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Parque Municipal dos Desportos de Fafe (Fafe)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Fafe		Marco 09

	1	X	2
	1.68	3.4	4.55
	1.71	3.63	5.11
	1.7	3.63	4.88	Watch
	1.67	3.3	4.75
	1.66	3.44	4.79
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↓ (1.7)	3.48 ↑ (3.42)	4.82 ↑ (4.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Fafe
54.5%

Draw
26.4%

Marco 09
19.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.9%

26.8%

19.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.8%

25.9%

18.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fafe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Marco 09 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fafe than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marco 09 than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Fafe - Marco 09 Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
64. Martins T. (G) 85. Castro D. 26. Batista J. (C) 4. Teixeira L. 13. Vigario J. 78. Pinto G. 60. Ribeiro Oliveira J. 8. Braga V. 77. Carlos Daniel 9. Santos J. 11. Picas	26. Ze Couto (G) 2. Sousa B. 3. Pedro M. (C) 33. Silva J. 5. Nandinho 6. Pacheco F. 10. Duarte D. 88. Silva D. 11. Mauro Ribeiro 7. Pedro P. 79. Erivaldo
Substitutes
20. Amorim J. 15. Breno 21. Davis SIlva 95. Fonseca T. 71. Joao Goncalo (G) 10. Ka 19. Leal J. 79. Teixeira T. 7. Veiga T.	99. Carvalho D. (G) 23. Garro L. 27. Guimaraes B. 18. Martins D. 53. Matos T. 21. Pedrosa C. 25. Pereira H. 9. Soares P. 95. Sousa V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
44', Pacheco F. 🟨,
45+3', 1 - 0, Santos J. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
48', Batista J. 🟨,
59', Picas 🟨,
62', Mauro Ribeiro ↓, Garro L. ↑,
63', Erivaldo 🟨,
65', Picas ↓, Davis SIlva ↑,
65', Braga V. ↓, Veiga T. ↑,
71', Pacheco F. ↓, Soares P. ↑,
71', Duarte D. ↓, Guimaraes B. ↑,
71', Erivaldo ↓, Sousa V. ↑,
72', Santos J. ↓, Fonseca T. ↑,
79', Pinto G. ↓, Breno ↑,
82', Silva J. ↓, Pedrosa C. ↑,
90+3', 1 - 1, Silva D. ⚽,

Preview

Recent performances by Fafe have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Marco is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Fafe is the team to beat.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Fafe won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1. (average 0.5:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Fafe won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Fafe
Portuguese Liga 3
08.03.26	Paredes - Fafe	0:0 ✺
01.03.26	Fafe - Sanjoanense	3:2 ✺
21.02.26	São João de Ver - Fafe	1:0 ✺
15.02.26	Fafe - Braga B	2:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
04.02.26	Fafe - Torreense	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 TWLWT
- AD Marco 09
Portuguese Liga 3
08.03.26	Sanjoanense - Marco 09	1:1 ✺
01.03.26	Marco 09 - São João de Ver	2:1 ✺
22.02.26	Braga B - Marco 09	2:0 ✺
14.02.26	Marco 09 - Paredes	0:2 ✺
25.01.26	Marco 09 - Varzim	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 TWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
07.12.25	Marco 09 - Fafe	1:1
24.08.25	Fafe - Marco 09	0:0

Upcoming Matches