The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
UAI Urquiza 34%
Draw 33.3%
Deportivo Merlo 32.7%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
31.5%
32.6%
35.9%
Our Initial ML Estimation
33.2%
30.9%
34.1%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
UAI Urquiza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)
Deportivo Merlo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for UAI Urquiza than the current prediction. (-0.8%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Merlo than the current prediction. (+1.4%)
UAI Urquiza - Deportivo Merlo Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Viain I. (G) 3. Caceres A. 4. Galli F. 9. Leiva R. 6. Monzon S. (C) 10. Pesse V. 8. Polizotto M. 5. Rios N. 2. Rodriguez V. 7. Scacchi S. 11. Zapata E.
1. Figueroa T. (G) 4. Aguerre F. 5. Benitez F. 7. Da Rosa J. E. 2. Figueredo L. 9. Hernandez R. 11. Maguicha D. 6. Minnicelli A. 10. Sandoval I. 8. Vallejo L. 3. Velasco A.
Substitutes
16. Arcuri L. 13. Ciancio V. 19. Marin A. 20. Mesa F. 14. Postel F. 15. Rocha T. 12. Rolon J. (G) 17. San Martin T. 18. Scarcella R.
15. Busto J. 18. Cabrera D. 19. Diaz A. 20. Gugenheim C. 14. Ibarra L. 17. Paez A. M. 16. Quinteros E. 12. Ratti V. (G) 13. Sineiro C.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
28', Vallejo L. 🟨,
39', Velasco A. 🟥,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
59', Zapata E. ↓, Scarcella R. ↑,
60', Leiva R. ↓, Rocha T. ↑,
65', Sandoval I. ↓, Gugenheim C. ↑,
65', Da Rosa J. E. ↓, Sineiro C. ↑,
65', Hernandez R. ↓, Cabrera D. ↑,
73', Polizotto M. ↓, Mesa F. ↑,
Preview
The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 19 and 13).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, UAI Urquiza won 1.
UAI Urquiza has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
Deportivo Merlo is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins โ 0).
In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
In the last 13 head-to-head matches, UAI Urquiza won 5 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 17:11. (average 1.3:0.8).
Including home matches between the teams, UAI Urquiza won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:5. (average 1.3:0.8).
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
15
Dep. Merlo
38
10
14
14
36:51
-15
44
21
UAI Urquiza
38
5
20
13
21:35
-14
35
Last Results with these Odds
Deportivo Merlo - the odds 2.5 are the expected chance of winning is 35.89%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.