Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Group 4 - Round 17

Date: 4 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio de La Condomina (Murcia)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	WebDirecto


	UCAM Murcia		Águilas

	1	X	2
	2.05	2.72	3.85
	2.17	2.71	3.91
	2.15	2.63	3.8
	2.1	2.72	3.92
	2.16	2.75	3.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.13 ↓ (2.21)	2.71 ↓ (2.94)	3.86 ↑ (3.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

UCAM Murcia
42.8%

Draw
33.6%

Águilas
23.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.2%

30.9%

27.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43%

29.6%

26.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

UCAM Murcia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Águilas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for UCAM Murcia than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Águilas than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

UCAM Murcia - Águilas Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
33', 1 - 0, Marin A. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Segunda RFEF ~ Promotion Play Offs and 1 in the zone Promotion).

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

UCAM Murcia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

UCAM Murcia will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, UCAM Murcia won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:5. (average 0.6:1).

Including home matches between the teams, UCAM Murcia won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1. (average 0.5:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UCAM Murcia CF
Club Friendly
30.12.25	UCAM Murcia - Real Murcia	3:2 ✺
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
21.12.25	UCAM Murcia - La Unión	1:2 ✺
14.12.25	Real Jaén - UCAM Murcia	0:3 ✺
10.12.25	Recreativo Huelva - UCAM Murcia	1:2 ✺
06.12.25	UCAM Murcia - Xerez CD	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.6 WLWWW
- Águilas FC
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
21.12.25	Águilas - Real Jaén	1:1 ✺
14.12.25	Lorca Deportiva - Águilas	0:1 ✺
07.12.25	Águilas - La Unión	2:0 ✺
30.11.25	Recreativo Huelva - Águilas	0:0 ✺
23.11.25	Águilas - Estepona	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 TWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
16.02.25	Águilas - UCAM Murcia	2:1
06.10.24	UCAM Murcia - Águilas	1:1
10.03.24	UCAM Murcia - Águilas	0:0
29.10.23	Águilas - UCAM Murcia	1:0
Club Friendly
21.08.21	Águilas - UCAM Murcia	1:1

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