Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Group 4 - Round 14

Date: 6 December 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio de La Condomina (Murcia)


	UCAM Murcia		Xerez CD

	1	X	2
	2.05	2.92	3.6
	2.19	2.82	3.84
	2.16	2.77	3.79	Watch
	2.1	2.75	3.75
	2.09	2.82	3.75
	2.05	3	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.11 ↑ (2.01)	2.85 ↓ (3)	3.75 ↑ (3.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 7.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

UCAM Murcia
43.4%

Draw
32.1%

Xerez CD
24.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.2%

30.3%

24.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.3%

31.7%

23.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

UCAM Murcia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Xerez CD has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for UCAM Murcia than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Xerez CD than the current prediction. (-1%)

UCAM Murcia - Xerez CD Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
36', 1 - 0, Ramirez Javi ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
52', 2 - 0, Aquino D. ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 7 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Segunda RFEF ~ Promotion Play Offs).

UCAM Murcia has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Xerez is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

UCAM Murcia will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, UCAM Murcia won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:3. (average 0.5:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, UCAM Murcia won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Last Results with these Odds

UCAM Murcia - the odds 2.01 are the expected chance of winning is 45.23%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UCAM Murcia CF
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
30.11.25	Linares Deportivo - UCAM Murcia	2:1 ✺
23.11.25	UCAM Murcia - Minera	3:1 ✺
09.11.25	Atlético Malagueño - UCAM Murcia	1:0 ✺
02.11.25	UCAM Murcia - Yeclano Deportivo	1:1 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
28.10.25	UCAM Murcia - Cádiz	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LWLTL
- Xerez CD
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
30.11.25	Xerez CD - Real Jaén	1:0 ✺
23.11.25	Yeclano Deportivo - Xerez CD	1:3 ✺
16.11.25	Xerez CD - Lorca Deportiva	0:1 ✺
09.11.25	La Unión - Xerez CD	0:1 ✺
02.11.25	Linares Deportivo - Xerez CD	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.9 WWLWT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
12.01.25	UCAM Murcia - Xerez CD	0:1
01.09.24	Xerez CD - UCAM Murcia	2:1

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