Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Group 4 - Round 16

Date: 21 December 2025, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub


	Águilas		Real Jaén

	1	X	2
	1.61	3.25	5.25	Watch
	1.88	2.92	4.25
	1.64	3.42	5.48
	1.89	2.86	4.8
	1.91	2.8	4.5
	1.93	3.03	4.52
	1.85	2.9	4.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.82 ↑ (1.49)	3.03 ↓ (3.68)	4.79 ↓ (6.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Águilas
50.5%

Draw
30.3%

Real Jaén
19.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.1%

24.7%

14.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.9%

23.3%

13.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Águilas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Águilas's form might have worsened.

Real Jaén has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Águilas than the current prediction. (+14.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Águilas, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Jaén than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Real Jaén, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Águilas - Real Jaén Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
66', 1 - 0, Mas J. ⚽,
86', 1 - 1, Moyano J. ⚽,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion and 14 in the zone Relegation).

Águilas is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Jaén is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Águilas may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Águilas is a strong favorite.

We predict that Águilas will win today's game, with odds of 1.63.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Águilas FC
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
14.12.25	Lorca Deportiva - Águilas	0:1 ✺
07.12.25	Águilas - La Unión	2:0 ✺
30.11.25	Recreativo Huelva - Águilas	0:0 ✺
23.11.25	Águilas - Estepona	2:1 ✺
16.11.25	Minera - Águilas	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.7 WWTWW
- Real Jaén
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
14.12.25	Real Jaén - UCAM Murcia	0:3 ✺
06.12.25	Yeclano Deportivo - Real Jaén	2:0 ✺
30.11.25	Xerez CD - Real Jaén	1:0 ✺
23.11.25	Real Jaén - Recreativo Huelva	2:1 ✺
16.11.25	La Unión - Real Jaén	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LLLWL

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