Match Info

Date: 10 October 2026, Saturday


	UD Ourense		Barakaldo

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.1	2.4
	2.8	3.1	2.38
	2.83	3.26	2.4	Watch
	2.87	3.1	2.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.8 ↓ (3.14)	3.14 ↓ (3.23)	2.37 ↑ (2.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

UD Ourense
32.5%

Draw
29%

Barakaldo
38.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29%

28.2%

42.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.8%

27.4%

41.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

UD Ourense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

Barakaldo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for UD Ourense than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barakaldo than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	0%

UD Ourense - Barakaldo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

A dramatic battle between two struggling sides fighting for survival points (ranked 19th in the Relegation and 16th in the Relegation).

Recent results have been tough for UD Ourense (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Barakaldo has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 1 win).

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

No recent head-to-head matches have been recorded between these two competitors.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
16	Barakaldo	6	1	3	2	6:9	-3	6
19	UD Ourense	6	0	2	4	2:10	-8	2

Last Results with these Odds

Barakaldo - the odds 2.13 are the expected chance of winning is 42.75%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Ourense
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
03.10.26	Real Unión de Irun - UD Ourense	1:1 ✺
27.09.26	UD Ourense - Cacereño	0:0 ✺
19.09.26	Unionistas de Salamanca - UD Ourense	3:1 ✺
12.09.26	UD Ourense - UD Logroñés	0:3 ✺
05.09.26	Mirandés - UD Ourense	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 TTLLL
- Barakaldo CF
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
03.10.26	Barakaldo - Arenas Club de Getxo	1:1 ✺
27.09.26	Barakaldo - Real Avilés	3:3 ✺
19.09.26	Ferrol - Barakaldo	1:0 ✺
11.09.26	Barakaldo - CD Extremadura	1:0 ✺
05.09.26	Coria - Barakaldo	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 TTLWL

UD Ourense - Barakaldo: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide