Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 19

Date: 17 April 2025, Thursday


	UD Ourense		RC Villalbes

	1	X	2
	1.58	3.5	4.8
	1.79	3.2	4.4
	1.84	3.08	4.57
	1.82	3.1	4.64
	1.76	3.15	4.69
	1.79	3.2	4.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.76 ↓ (2.15)	3.21 ↑ (3.1)	4.58 ↑ (2.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

UD Ourense
51.7%

Draw
28.4%

RC Villalbes
19.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.3%

28.6%

30.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.9%

26.9%

28.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

UD Ourense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in UD Ourense's performance.

RC Villalbes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and RC Villalbes might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for UD Ourense than the current prediction. (-7.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with UD Ourense that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for RC Villalbes than the current prediction. (+8.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that RC Villalbes could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

UD Ourense - RC Villalbes Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 1)
49', 0 - 1, ⚽,
72', 1 - 1, Vazquez O. ⚽,
82', 2 - 1, Luismi ⚽,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day's play. In the match war can see two teams from the top of the table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Tercera RFEF ~ Group 1 (Play Offs: )).

UD Ourense is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Villalbes is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

UD Ourense could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match UD Ourense is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's UD Ourense to win the game is with odds 1.59.

Last 4 head-to-head matches UD Ourense won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 3:9 (average 0.8:2.3).

Including matches at home between the teams UD Ourense won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 0:0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Ourense
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 1
13.04.25	UD Ourense - Estradense	3:1 ✺
06.04.25	Gran Peña - UD Ourense	1:1 ✺
30.03.25	UD Ourense - Somozas	0:0 ✺
23.03.25	Boiro - UD Ourense	0:1 ✺
15.03.25	UD Ourense - Villalonga	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 WTTWW
- Racing Club Villalbes
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 1
06.04.25	Alondras - RC Villalbes	0:0 ✺
30.03.25	RC Villalbes - Silva SD	2:0 ✺
22.03.25	Estradense - RC Villalbes	4:1 ✺
16.03.25	RC Villalbes - Gran Peña	0:0 ✺
02.03.25	RC Villalbes - Boiro	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 TWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 1
15.09.24	RC Villalbes - UD Ourense	1:1
12.03.23	UD Ourense - RC Villalbes	0:0
20.11.22	RC Villalbes - UD Ourense	5:1
05.01.20	RC Villalbes - UD Ourense	3:1

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