Match Info

Coppa Italia - 1/16-finals

Date: 23 September 2025, Tuesday

Location: Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli (Udine)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Udinese		Palermo

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.1	3.2	Watch
	2.32	3.2	3.2	Watch
	2.33	3.3	3.37
	1.97	3.25	4.02	Watch
	2.23	3.22	3.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.22 ↑ (1.7)	3.21 ↓ (3.6)	3.42 ↓ (5.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Udinese
42.8%

Draw
29.5%

Palermo
27.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.2%

26.6%

17.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.3%

25.7%

17.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Udinese has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Udinese's form might have worsened.

Palermo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Palermo's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Udinese than the current prediction. (+11.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Udinese, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Palermo than the current prediction. (-9.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Palermo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
78.6%	14.3%	7.1%

Udinese - Palermo Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Udinese (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Palermo (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.25 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - draw (4.38) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

DC - Palermo (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Palermo (1.87) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Udinese will win (11 of 14 users predict this - 78.57%).
Confidence interval (95%): 57.08% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Udinese (votes: 2 - 40%). Palermo (votes: 3 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
90. Sava R. (G) 16. Palma M. 27. Kabasele C. 28. Solet O. 59. Zanoli A. 24. Piotrowski J. 8. Karlstrom J. (C) 38. Miller L. 11. Kamara H. 10. Zaniolo N. 18. Buksa A.	66. Joronen J. (G) 27. Pierozzi N. 29. Peda P. 72. Veroli D. 11. Gyasi E. 6. Gomes C. (C) 28. Blin A. 17. Giovane S. 21. Le Douaron J. 14. Vasic A. 31. Corona G.
Substitutes
14. Atta A. 13. Bertola N. 29. Camara A. 9. Davis K. 19. Ehizibue K. 32. Ekkelenkamp J. 2. Goglichidze S. 7. Gueye I. 31. Kristensen T. 4. Lovric S. 77. Modesto R. 1. Nunziante A. (G) 41. Venuti G. (G) 6. Zarraga O. 33. Zemura J.	3. Augello T. 30. Avella M. (G) 18. Avena P. 9. Brunori M. 32. Ceccaroni P. 15. Nicolosi E. 5. Palumbo A. 77. Pizzuto S. (G) 20. Pohjanpalo J. 10. Ranocchia F. 8. Segre J.
Coaches
Runjaic K.	Inzaghi F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
37', Kabasele C. 🟨,
41', 1 - 0, Zaniolo N. ⚽, Zanoli A. (A),
45', 2 - 0, Miller L. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Gyasi E. ↓, Ranocchia F. ↑,
46', Pierozzi N. ↓, Augello T. ↑,
46', Le Douaron J. ↓, Palumbo A. ↑,
59', Giovane S. ↓, Brunori M. ↑,
65', Buksa A. ↓, Davis K. ↑,
65', Kabasele C. ↓, Kristensen T. ↑,
65', Ranocchia F. ↓, Segre J. ↑,
70', Miller L. ↓, Ekkelenkamp J. ↑,
70', Zaniolo N. ↓, Gueye I. ↑,
81', Karlstrom J. ↓, Lovric S. ↑,
90+3', 2 - 1, Peda P. ⚽, Augello T. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Udinese won 2.

Udinese is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Palermo is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Udinese may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Udinese is seen as the favorite.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Udinese won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 15:15. (average 1.7:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Udinese won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:6. (average 1.5:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Udinese Calcio
Italian Serie A
20.09.25	Udinese - Milan	0:3 ✺
14.09.25	Pisa - Udinese	0:1 ✺
31.08.25	Inter Milan - Udinese	1:2 ✺
25.08.25	Udinese - Verona	1:1 ✺
Coppa Italia
18.08.25	Udinese - Carrarese	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.7 LWWTW
- U.S. Città di Palermo
Italian Serie B
19.09.25	Palermo - Bari	2:0 ✺
14.09.25	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Palermo	0:2 ✺
30.08.25	Palermo - Frosinone	0:0 ✺
23.08.25	Palermo - Reggiana	2:1 ✺
Coppa Italia
16.08.25	Cremonese - Palermo	0:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.7 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
19.03.17	Udinese - Palermo	4:1
27.10.16	Palermo - Udinese	1:3
24.01.16	Palermo - Udinese	4:1
30.08.15	Udinese - Palermo	0:1
12.04.15	Udinese - Palermo	1:3
09.11.14	Palermo - Udinese	1:1
08.05.13	Palermo - Udinese	2:3

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