Match Info

Serie A - Round 4

Date: 20 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli (Udine)

Referee: Doveri D. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 4, New World Sport 2, SuperSport Football, SuperSport Maximo 360
Albania	Tring Sport 1
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 2
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic
Australia	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Austria	DAZN 2, DAZN, Sky Go Austria
Belgium	DAZN 2, Play Sports 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Disney+, ESPN 4
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech-republic	Sport 1
Denmark	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport X
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2
France	DAZN France
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 2, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, WOW
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 3, M Plus Live
Hungary	Match 4, Net4+
Indonesia	Vidio
Iran	IRIB Varzesh
Italy	DAZN Italia, NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 251, Sky Sport 4K, Sky Sport Calcio, Sky Sport Uno
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2, ART Sport 1
Macao	Macau Cable TV 34 Football
Malaysia	Astro Arena 2, Astro Go, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 3
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 2
North-central-america	ESPN Norte
Norway	VG+
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Poland	Eleven Sports 1
Portugal	Sport TV6
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 3, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2, Prima TV
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 1, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Saudi-arabia	STC TV
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Slovenia	Arena Sport 2
South-america	ESPN 2 South, ESPN South
South-korea	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Sportkanalen
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Thailand	True ID, True Premier Football 3
Turkey	S Sport 2, S Sport, S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	DAZN, DAZN UK
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	DAZN Espanol, DAZN USA, Fox Deportes, Fox Deportes, Fox Sports App, Foxsports.com, Fubo Sports Network, Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter


	Udinese		Milan

	1	X	2
	5	4	1.67	Watch
	4.95	3.95	1.7	Watch
	5.31	3.92	1.71
	18.21	8.09	1.13	Watch
	5.15	3.94	1.76
Avarage Now (Initially)	7.72 ↑ (4.37)	4.78 ↑ (3.71)	1.59 ↓ (1.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Udinese
13.4%

Draw
21.7%

Milan
64.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.8%

25.7%

52.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.4%

27.5%

56.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Udinese has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Udinese's form might have worsened.

Milan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Milan's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Udinese than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Udinese, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Milan than the current prediction. (-8.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Milan, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
2.1%	10.4%	87.5%

Udinese - Milan Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH 0, 1st Half - Milan (1.35) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Milan will win (41 of 47 users predict this - 87.23%).
Confidence interval (95%): 77.69% – 96.77%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Milan will win (17 of 17 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 18 Selected Experts predict this event. Milan (votes: 18 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
90. Sava R. (G) 19. Ehizibue K. 31. Kristensen T. 28. Solet O. 33. Zemura J. 6. Zarraga O. 8. Karlstrom J. (C) 32. Ekkelenkamp J. 14. Atta A. 17. Bravo I. 9. Davis K.	1. Terracciano P. (G) 23. Tomori F. 46. Gabbia M. (C) 31. Pavlovic S. 56. Saelemaekers A. 19. Fofana Y. 14. Modric L. 12. Rabiot A. 2. Estupinan P. 11. Pulisic C. 7. Gimenez S.
Substitutes
13. Bertola N. 18. Buksa A. 2. Goglichidze S. 7. Gueye I. 27. Kabasele C. 11. Kamara H. 38. Miller L. 77. Modesto R. 1. Nunziante A. (G) 16. Palma M. 24. Piotrowski J. 41. Venuti G. (G) 10. Zaniolo N. 59. Zanoli A.	24. Athekame Z. 25. Balentien C. 33. Bartesaghi D. 5. De Winter K. 8. Loftus-Cheek R. 18. Nkunku C. 27. Odogu D. 37. Pittarella M. (G) 4. Ricci S. 96. Torriani L. (G)
Coaches
Runjaic K.	Landucci M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
30', Atta A. 🟨,
40', 0 - 1, Pulisic C. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Bravo I. ↓, Buksa A. ↑,
46', 0 - 2, Fofana Y. ⚽, Pulisic C. (A),
50', Zemura J. 🟨,
53', 0 - 3, Pulisic C. ⚽, Rabiot A. (A),
59', Ehizibue K. ↓, Zanoli A. ↑,
59', Davis K. ↓, Zaniolo N. ↑,
59', Ekkelenkamp J. ↓, Modesto R. ↑,
63', Pulisic C. ↓, Loftus-Cheek R. ↑,
63', Gimenez S. ↓, Nkunku C. ↑,
68', Pavlovic S. ↓, De Winter K. ↑,
68', Fofana Y. ↓, Ricci S. ↑,
81', Modric L. ↓, Athekame Z. ↑,
81', Atta A. ↓, Miller L. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Udinese won 2.

Udinese has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Milan has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Milan is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Udinese: Lovric S. (Calf Injury) Okoye M. (Suspended)

There will not play in Milan: Jashari A. (Calf Injury) Leao R. (Calf Injury) Maignan M. (Calf Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Udinese won 5 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 24:31. (average 1.2:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Udinese won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 13:17. (average 1.3:1.7).

Last Results with these Odds

Milan - the odds 1.81 are the expected chance of winning is 52.57%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Udinese Calcio
Italian Serie A
14.09.25	Pisa - Udinese	0:1 ✺
31.08.25	Inter Milan - Udinese	1:2 ✺
25.08.25	Udinese - Verona	1:1 ✺
Coppa Italia
18.08.25	Udinese - Carrarese	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Werder Bremen - Udinese	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 26.6 WWTWW
- AC Milan
Italian Serie A
14.09.25	Milan - Bologna	1:0 ✺
29.08.25	Lecce - Milan	0:2 ✺
23.08.25	Milan - Cremonese	1:2 ✺
Coppa Italia
17.08.25	Milan - Bari	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
10.08.25	Chelsea - Milan	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
11.04.25	Udinese - Milan	0:4
19.10.24	Milan - Udinese	1:0
20.01.24	Udinese - Milan	2:3
04.11.23	Milan - Udinese	0:1
18.03.23	Udinese - Milan	3:1
13.08.22	Milan - Udinese	4:2
25.02.22	Milan - Udinese	1:1

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