Match Info

GERMANY: 2. Bundesliga - Round 3

Date: 25 August 2024, Sunday

Location: Donaustadion (Ulm)

Referee: Weisbach E. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	TOD
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Moja TV
Croatia	SportKlub 6
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Elisa Viihde, Veikkaus TV, Viaplay
Germany	Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 4, WOW
Iceland	Viaplay
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Viaplay
Slovenia	Sport TV3
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 4
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2 MAX, Tivibu Spor 4
World	Onefootball app


	Ulm 1846		Fortuna Düsseldorf

	1	X	2
	3.7	3.6	1.95	Watch
	3.6	3.6	1.98
	3.6	3.6	1.95	Watch
	3.82	3.71	2
	3.68	3.68	2.03	Watch
	3.6	3.6	1.91	Watch
	3.7	3.74	1.95	Watch
	3.6	3.6	1.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.66 ↓ (3.87)	3.64 ↓ (3.95)	1.97 ↑ (1.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ulm 1846
25.8%

Draw
26%

Fortuna Düsseldorf
48.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.3%

23.8%

51.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.6%

23.1%

53.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ulm 1846 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Fortuna Düsseldorf has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ulm 1846 than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortuna Düsseldorf than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Fortuna Düsseldorf could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12%	4%	84%

Ulm 1846 - Fortuna Düsseldorf Predictions

Users Predictions: Fortuna Düsseldorf will win (20 of 24 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.42% – 98.24%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
39. Ortag C. (G) 5. Reichert J. 32. Strompf P. 27. Kolbe N. 18. Stoll L. 38. Hyrylainen L. 23. Brandt M. 43. Rosch R. 11. Chessa D. 16. Keller A. 33. Higl F.	33. Kastenmeier F. (G) 25. Zimmermann M. 3. Hoffmann A. 15. Oberdorf T. 19. Iyoha E. 4. Tanaka A. 11. Klaus F. 31. Sobottka M. 8. Johannesson I. 24. Kownacki D. 18. Niemiec J.
Substitutes
7. Allgeier B. 4. Gaal T. 6. Geyer T. 30. Krattenmacher M. 10. Ludwig A. 26. Maier P. 19. Meier J. 12. Seybold M. (G) 29. Telalovic S.	30. de Wijs J. 34. Gavory N. 27. Jastrzembski D. 1. Kwasigroch R. (G) 39. Mbamba N. 7. Pejcinovic D. 5. Quarshie J. 21. Rossmann T. 22. Schmidt D.
Coaches
Worle T.	Thioune D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
20', Brandt M. 🟨,
40', Iyoha E. 🟨,
41', 1 - 0, Higl F. (Pen),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
47', Sobottka M. 🟨,
48', Niemiec J. 🟨,
53', Kolbe N. 🟨,
62', Sobottka M. ↓, Mbamba N. ↑,
63', Brandt M. ↓, Maier P. ↑,
63', Keller A. ↓, Krattenmacher M. ↑,
74', Kownacki D. ↓, Schmidt D. ↑,
74', Iyoha E. ↓, Pejcinovic D. ↑,
75', Niemiec J. ↓, Rossmann T. ↑,
78', Hyrylainen L. ↓, Meier J. ↑,
79', Reichert J. ↓, Gaal T. ↑,
81', Pejcinovic D. (Pen),
81', 1 - 1, Pejcinovic D. ⚽,
82', 1 - 2, Schmidt D. ⚽,
85', Zimmermann M. 🟨,
87', Chessa D. ↓, Telalovic S. ↑,
90+2', Klaus F. ↓, de Wijs J. ↑,
90+2', Mbamba N. 🟨,

Preview

Ulm is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Fortuna is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Ulm could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Fortuna is a favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Ulm won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Ulm won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ulm 1846
German DFB Pokal
16.08.24	Ulm 1846 - Bayern Munich	0:4 ✺
German 2 Bundesliga
09.08.24	Jahn Regensburg - Ulm 1846	1:0 ✺
04.08.24	Ulm 1846 - Kaiserslautern	1:2 ✺
Club Friendly
27.07.24	Ingolstadt - Ulm 1846	1:1 ✺
17.07.24	Unterhaching - Ulm 1846	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 LLLTW
- Fortuna Düsseldorf
German DFB Pokal
18.08.24	Dynamo Dresden - Fortuna Düsseldorf	2:0 ✺
German 2 Bundesliga
10.08.24	Fortuna Düsseldorf - Karlsruher	0:0 ✺
04.08.24	Darmstadt - Fortuna Düsseldorf	0:2 ✺
Club Friendly
27.07.24	Ipswich Town - Fortuna Düsseldorf	1:2 ✺
15.07.24	Fortuna Düsseldorf - Galatasaray	5:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.2 LTWWW

Latest Head to Head

German DFB Pokal
30.10.18	Ulm 1846 - Fortuna Düsseldorf	1:5

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