Match Info

GERMANY: 3. LIGA - ROUND 16

Date: 25 November 2023, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Germany	Magenta Sport


	Ulm 1846		Freiburg II

	1	X	2
	1.55	4	5.25
	1.6	4	5.25
	1.57	4	5.5	Watch
	1.58	4.37	5.67
	1.58	4.37	5.67
	1.5	3.8	5
	1.55	4.05	5.35
	1.53	3.9	5.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.56 ↓ (1.75)	4.06 ↑ (3.75)	5.36 ↑ (4.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ulm 1846
59.7%

Draw
22.9%

Freiburg II
17.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.5%

24.9%

21.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.4%

23.9%

22.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ulm 1846 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ulm 1846's performance.

Freiburg II has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ulm 1846 than the current prediction. (-8.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ulm 1846 that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Freiburg II than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Freiburg II could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	16.7%	0%

Ulm 1846 - Freiburg II Predictions

Users Predictions: Ulm 1846 will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
39. Ortag C. (G) 6. Geyer T. 5. Reichert J. 25. Yarbrough L. 7. Allgeier B. 26. Maier P. 23. Brandt M. 43. Rosch R. 11. Chessa D. 33. Higl F. 22. Scienza L.	1. Uphoff B. (G) 17. Fallmann P. 13. Muller S. 25. Bichsel J. 23. Fahrner P. 42. Marino L. 11. Stark J. 48. Yilmaz B. 36. Ambros L. 18. Al Ghaddioui H. 29. Breunig M.
Substitutes
8. Ahrend L. 29. De Sousa Oelsner D. 4. Gaal T. 21. Jann N. 10. Ludwig A. 1. Otto L. (G) 28. Risch S. 31. Ruhle T. 18. Stoll L.	19. Bouebari F. 33. Hornung S. (G) 21. Lee Ji-Han 8. Lienhard P. 47. Ogbus I. 30. Pellegrino G. 20. Worner M.
Coaches
Worle T.	Stamm T.

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will meet in this game (ranked 5 and 19 in the zone Relegation).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Ulm won 1.

Recent matches Ulm is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Freiburg II is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Freiburg II could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Ulm have a series of guest games.

In this match Ulm is a favorite.

Last 10 head-to-head matches Ulm won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 7-16.

Including matches at home between the teams Ulm won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 5-10.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ulm 1846
Club Friendly
16.11.23	Karlsruher - Ulm 1846	0:2 ✺
German 3 Bundesliga
12.11.23	Jahn Regensburg - Ulm 1846	2:0 ✺
05.11.23	Preußen Münster - Ulm 1846	3:2 ✺
28.10.23	Ulm 1846 - Hallescher	2:3 ✺
22.10.23	Erzgebirge Aue - Ulm 1846	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 WLLLW
- Freiburg II
German 3 Bundesliga
12.11.23	Freiburg II - Preußen Münster	2:2 ✺
04.11.23	Dynamo Dresden - Freiburg II	2:0 ✺
29.10.23	Freiburg II - Erzgebirge Aue	0:1 ✺
21.10.23	1860 München - Freiburg II	2:0 ✺
08.10.23	Lübeck - Freiburg II	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 TLLLW

Latest Head to Head

German Regionalliga Sudwest
26.05.21	Freiburg II - Ulm 1846	3:0
09.01.21	Ulm 1846 - Freiburg II	2:0
26.10.19	Ulm 1846 - Freiburg II	1:3
27.04.19	Ulm 1846 - Freiburg II	0:0
21.10.18	Freiburg II - Ulm 1846	2:0
24.03.18	Ulm 1846 - Freiburg II	1:1
30.09.17	Freiburg II - Ulm 1846	0:1

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