Match Info

3. Liga - Round 21

Date: 24 January 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Erzgebirgsstadion (Aue) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Lechner F. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Croatia	14:00	SportKlub 3
Germany	14:00	DFB Play, Magenta Sport, MDR Fernsehen, tv.dfb.de
Switzerland	14:00	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Usa	08:00	ESPN App, ESPN+
International	13:00	Onefootball


	Erzgebirge Aue		Ulm 1846

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.4	3.1	Watch
	2.25	3.6	2.9
	2.1	3.45	3.1	Watch
	2.14	3.71	3.43
	2.07	3.7	3.16	Watch
	2.05	3.3	3.1
	2.14	3.48	3.17	Watch
	2.05	3.5	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.11 ↓ (2.16)	3.52 ↓ (3.57)	3.15 ↑ (2.99)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Erzgebirge Aue
44%

Draw
26.4%

Ulm 1846
29.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

43%

26%

31%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.3%

25.2%

30.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Erzgebirge Aue has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Ulm 1846 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Erzgebirge Aue than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ulm 1846 than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Erzgebirge Aue - Ulm 1846 Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Aue (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Aue (2.07) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Erzgebirge Aue will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Aue (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Lord L. (G) 17. Fallmann P. 16. Malone R. 25. Zobel T. 29. Collins J. 20. Fabisch J. 11. Uhlmann E. 24. Ehlers J. 10. Gunther-Schmidt J. 8. Clausen M. 15. Bar M.	1. Schmitt M. (G) 19. Meier J. 21. Seegert M. 27. Mazagg L. 32. Kolle N. 14. Dressel D. 20. Pepic M. 11. Chessa D. 23. Brandt M. 26. El-Zein A. 9. Roser L.
Substitutes
23. Barylla A. 9. Bornschein R. 1. Mannel M. (G) 39. Schmid M. 30. Seiffert M. 5. Simnica L. 34. Stefaniak M. 14. Tashchy B. 7. Weinhauer E.	7. Aksakal E. 25. Loder E. 45. Mamba S. 39. Ortag C. (G) 28. Scholze M. 3. Vukancic N. 8. Westermeier B.
Coaches
Hartel J.	Dotchev P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
12', Gunther-Schmidt J. ↓, Tashchy B. ↑,
17', Seegert M. 🟨,
23', Kolle N. 🟨,
37', Brandt M. 🟨,
41', Mazagg L. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
48', 0 - 1, Seegert M. ⚽,
54', 0 - 2, Pepic M. ⚽,
65', Malone R. 🟥,
67', Fallmann P. ↓, Barylla A. ↑,
67', Ehlers J. ↓, Stefaniak M. ↑,
77', Roser L. ↓, Becker A. ↑,
77', El-Zein A. ↓, Loder E. ↑,
77', Seegert M. ↓, Vukancic N. ↑,
80', Bar M. ↓, Bornschein R. ↑,
80', Tashchy B. ↓, Weinhauer E. ↑,
87', Pepic M. ↓, Westermeier B. ↑,
88', Weinhauer E. 🟨,
90', 0 - 3, Loder E. ⚽, Chessa D. (A),
90+2', Chessa D. ↓, Aksakal E. ↑,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 16 and 19 in the zone Relegation).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Aue might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Aue won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 3:7. (average 0.8:1.8).

Including home match between the teams, Aue won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Ulm 1846 - the odds 2.99 are the expected chance of winning is 31.04%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Erzgebirge Aue
German 3 Bundesliga
17.01.26	Hansa Rostock - Erzgebirge Aue	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
05.01.26	Erzgebirge Aue - Union Berlin	1:2 ✺
German 3 Bundesliga
20.12.25	Erzgebirge Aue - Schweinfurt	4:0 ✺
13.12.25	Duisburg - Erzgebirge Aue	0:0 ✺
07.12.25	Erzgebirge Aue - Ingolstadt	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LLWTT
- Ulm 1846
German 3 Bundesliga
17.01.26	Ulm 1846 - Wehen Wiesbaden	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
05.01.26	Ulm 1846 - Bonner	2:1 ✺
German 3 Bundesliga
20.12.25	Rot-Weiß Essen - Ulm 1846	3:2 ✺
12.12.25	Ulm 1846 - Osnabrück	3:5 ✺
06.12.25	Viktoria Köln - Ulm 1846	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 LWLLW

Latest Head to Head

German 3 Bundesliga
09.08.25	Ulm 1846 - Erzgebirge Aue	1:0
30.03.24	Ulm 1846 - Erzgebirge Aue	2:2
22.10.23	Erzgebirge Aue - Ulm 1846	1:2
German DFB Pokal
12.09.20	Ulm 1846 - Erzgebirge Aue	2:0

Upcoming Matches