Match Info

AFC Champions League - League phase - Round 5

Date: 24 November 2025, Monday

Location: Al Rashid Stadium (Dubai)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Australia	Paramount+
Bulgaria	Nova Sport
China	iQIYI, Migu, ZhiBo8
Croatia	SportKlub
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Hong-kong	HOY TV, M Plus Live
India	FanCode, FanCode, Vision+
Indonesia	K-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel
Iran	IRIB Varzesh
Israel	Sport 3
Japan	DAZN Japan
Pakistan	Tapmad
Russia	TV Start
South-korea	Coupang Play


	Shabab Al-Ahli		Al-Gharafa

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.34	5.15	7.3
	1.40	4.95	6.39	Watch
	1.36	5.21	8.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.37 ↓ (1.38)	5.1 ↑ (5.08)	7.31 ↓ (7.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Shabab Al-Ahli
68.7%

Draw
18.4%

Al-Gharafa
12.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.6%

18.6%

12.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

71.1%

17.9%

12.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Shabab Al-Ahli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

The chances for Al-Gharafa have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shabab Al-Ahli than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Al-Gharafa than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	10%	10%

Shabab Al Ahli - Al Gharafa Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Shabab Al-Ahli (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Shabab Al-Ahli will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Al Meqebaali H. (G) 75. Mateus Henrique 4. Planic B. 13. Renan 31. Kauan Santos 10. Cartabia F. (C) 26. Al Nuaimi E. 14. Garcia D. 77. Guilherme 21. Adil S. 57. Yuri Cesar	1. Khalifa A. B. (G) 11. Surag A. (C) 27. Holgate M. 42. Sano S. 23. Fadlalla S. 24. Gunnarsson A. 29. Diaz F. 18. Al Oui A. 14. Djalo A. 7. Coman F. 99. Hamed J.
Substitutes
11. Al Ghassani Y. 18. Al Mansouri M. 8. Alvarez G. 80. Breno 9. Dabbur M. 25. Gomes I. 28. Gonzalez Baquero S. 12. Hamza H. (G) 15. Kaiky 19. Mateusao 23. Seifi M. 70. Thiago	33. Abdulnasir C. 26. Al-Ali R. A. 21. Kahiout H. (G) 40. Lecomte C. (G) 3. Muntari M. 64. Musaed E. 22. Sudarmanto A. 6. Traore D.
Coaches
Sousa P.	Martins P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
9', 1 - 0, Kauan Santos ⚽, Guilherme (A),
28', 2 - 0, Guilherme ⚽, Adil S. (A),
30', Djalo A. 🟨,
36', Mateus Henrique ↓, Gomes I. ↑,
36', Al Nuaimi E. 🟨,
45', Hamed J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Garcia D. ↓, Breno ↑,
57', Surag A. ↓, Muntari M. ↑,
79', Holgate M. ↓, Al-Ali R. A. ↑,
79', Gunnarsson A. ↓, Traore D. ↑,
83', Adil S. ↓, Mateusao ↑,
83', Guilherme ↓, Al Mansouri M. ↑,
90', Cartabia F. ↓, Al Ghassani Y. ↑,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 9).

Shabab Al-Ahli is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Al-Gharafa's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Al-Gharafa may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Al-Gharafa has had a series of home games.

In this match, Shabab Al-Ahli is the undisputed favorite.

We predict that Shabab Al-Ahli will win today's game, with odds of 1.38.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Shabab Al-Ahli won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:4. (average 2.3:1).

Including home match between the teams, Shabab Al-Ahli won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai
UAE Football League
20.11.25	Khor Fakkan - Shabab Al-Ahli	0:1 ✺
UAE League Cup
16.11.25	Shabab Al-Ahli - Al-Nasr	2:1 ✺
AFC Champions League
03.11.25	Al Duhail - Shabab Al-Ahli	4:1 ✺
UAE Football League
30.10.25	Shabab Al-Ahli - Al-Sharjah	2:0 ✺
UAE Presidents Cup
25.10.25	Al Bataeh - Shabab Al-Ahli	0:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WWLWW
- Al-Gharafa SC
Qatar QSL
21.11.25	Al-Gharafa - Al-Wakrah	1:0 ✺
Qatar QSL Cup
14.11.25	Al Duhail - Al-Gharafa	1:0 ✺
Qatar QSL
07.11.25	Al-Gharafa - Qatar SC	2:1 ✺
AFC Champions League
03.11.25	Al-Gharafa - Al-Hilal	1:2 ✺
Qatar QSL
30.10.25	Al-Gharafa - Al Duhail	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

AFC Champions League
13.08.24	Al-Gharafa - Shabab Al-Ahli	1:0
18.04.22	Shabab Al-Ahli - Al-Gharafa	8:2
14.04.22	Al-Gharafa - Shabab Al-Ahli	1:1
01.05.12	Al-Gharafa - Shabab Al-Ahli	N/A

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