Match Info

QSL Cup - Round 3

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Thani bin Jassim Stadium (Doha)


	Umm-Salal		Al-Sailiya

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.4	2.3
	1.4	5.19	5.7
	1.41	5.13	5.72	Watch
	1.3	5	7.75
	2.6	3.45	2.27
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.85 ↓ (2.24)	4.43 ↑ (3.57)	4.75 ↑ (2.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 7.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Umm-Salal
55.3%

Draw
23.1%

Al-Sailiya
21.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.7%

25.5%

33.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.9%

26.9%

32%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Umm-Salal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Umm-Salal's performance.

Al-Sailiya has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Al-Sailiya might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Umm-Salal than the current prediction. (-12.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Umm-Salal that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Al-Sailiya than the current prediction. (+10.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Al-Sailiya could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Umm Salal - Al Sailiya Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
18', 0 - 1, ⚽,
44', 1 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
56', 2 - 1, ⚽,
75', 3 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Umm-Salal won 2.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Umm-Salal may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Umm-Salal won 7 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 18:19. (average 0.9:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Umm-Salal won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 9:7. (average 0.8:0.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Umm-Salal SC
Qatar QSL
26.09.25	Al-Wakrah - Umm-Salal	3:2 ✺
Qatar QSL Cup
24.09.25	Umm-Salal - Al-Khor	1:1 ✺
Qatar QSL
21.09.25	Umm-Salal - Al-Sailiya	2:1 ✺
12.09.25	Al Duhail - Umm-Salal	4:2 ✺
Qatar QSL Cup
03.09.25	Al-Shamal - Umm-Salal	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 LTWLW
- Al-Sailiya
Qatar QSL
27.09.25	Al-Sailiya - Al-Arabi Doha	4:0 ✺
Qatar QSL Cup
24.09.25	Al-Sailiya - Al-Markhiya	1:0 ✺
Qatar QSL
21.09.25	Umm-Salal - Al-Sailiya	2:1 ✺
12.09.25	Al-Gharafa - Al-Sailiya	2:0 ✺
Qatar QSL Cup
03.09.25	Al-Shahania - Al-Sailiya	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Qatar QSL
21.09.25	Umm-Salal - Al-Sailiya	2:1
13.02.23	Al-Sailiya - Umm-Salal	1:1
Qatar QSL Cup
14.10.22	Umm-Salal - Al-Sailiya	1:1
Qatar QSL
24.08.22	Umm-Salal - Al-Sailiya	1:0
19.02.22	Umm-Salal - Al-Sailiya	0:1
31.10.21	Al-Sailiya - Umm-Salal	0:0
07.04.21	Umm-Salal - Al-Sailiya	1:0

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