Match Info

PERU: LIGA 1 - APERTURA - ROUND 6

Date: 4 March 2024, Monday

Location: Estadio Municipal Carlos Vidaurre Garcia (Tarapoto)

Referee: Ordonez E. (Per)


	Unión Comercio		Cajamarca

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.3	3.25	Watch
	2.1	3.1	3
	2.2	3.4	3.2	Watch
	2.22	3.35	3.1
	2.24	3.14	3.42
	2.1	3.4	3
	2.08	3.42	3.38	Watch
	2.16	3.3	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.16 ↓ (2.5)	3.3 ↑ (3.19)	3.19 ↑ (2.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Unión Comercio
42.9%

Draw
28.1%

Cajamarca
29%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.1%

29.1%

33.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.3%

30.1%

32.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Unión Comercio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Unión Comercio's performance.

Cajamarca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Unión Comercio than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cajamarca than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	62.5%	12.5%

Unión Comercio - Cajamarca Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Unión Comercio will win (votes: 2 - 25%). Cajamarca will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 62.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 29% – 96%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Barrios I. (G) 5. Sanchez K. 3. Paredes T. 20. Ramirez C. 23. Alvarez J. 17. Vargas D. (C) 31. Serra P. 14. Regalado I. 11. Guerrero G. 25. Millan D. 9. de Jesus M.	1. Zubczuk P. (C) 25. Requena P. 2. Mondino D. 4. Aparicio K. 5. Valoyes J. 6. Gutierrez A. 14. Ruiz K. 20. Romero A. 8. Ojeda A. 9. Perlaza V. 11. Quintero J.
Substitutes
13. Angulo Grueso B. A. 12. Diaz W. (G) 10. Hernan Perez 24. Javier Navea 15. Jimenez O. 2. Salas J. 27. Trujillo L. 19. Uribe C. 29. Zeta H.	30. Cantoro T. 17. Fernandez C. 28. Guevara R. 21. Infante M. 3. Medina J. (G) 16. Perez J. 24. Tapia D.
Coaches
Craviotto N.	Ramacciotti C.

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Unión Comercio won 3.

Unión Comercio has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Cajamarca is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Unión Comercio will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 16 head-to-head matches Unión Comercio won 6 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 22-17.

Including matches at home between the teams Unión Comercio won 5 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 13-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Unión Comercio
Peruvian Liga 1
24.02.24	FBC Melgar - Unión Comercio	2:1 ✺
18.02.24	Unión Comercio - Alianza Lima	1:3 ✺
12.02.24	Atlético Grau - Unión Comercio	1:0 ✺
03.02.24	Unión Comercio - Carlos A. Mannucci	2:2 ✺
29.01.24	Los Chankas - Unión Comercio	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLTL
- UTC De Cajamarca
Peruvian Liga 1
24.02.24	Cajamarca - Universitario de Deportes	0:0 ✺
16.02.24	Alianza Atlético - Cajamarca	2:0 ✺
09.02.24	Cajamarca - Universidad César Vallejo	4:0 ✺
02.02.24	Cusco - Cajamarca	1:1 ✺
26.01.24	Cajamarca - Deportivo Garcilaso	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.3 TLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
29.07.23	Cajamarca - Unión Comercio	1:1
26.02.23	Unión Comercio - Cajamarca	1:0
01.11.19	Cajamarca - Unión Comercio	2:1
18.05.19	Unión Comercio - Cajamarca	4:0
12.11.18	Cajamarca - Unión Comercio	2:3
20.08.18	Unión Comercio - Cajamarca	2:3
19.11.17	Unión Comercio - Cajamarca	1:0

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